Hong Kong’s “Dragon Baby” boom and talent schemes have fuelled a temporary surge in secondary school enrolment. Photo: Dickson LeeHong Kong’s public secondary schools are experiencing a temporary surge in Form One classes due to a “dragon baby” boom and an increase of mainland Chinese students under the city’s talent schemes.
However, the number of Form One classes is expected to peak this year, with a projected decline in student population in the coming years, raising concerns about the future of some schools.
The number of Form One classes at nearly 400 government and aided schools rose from 1,493 in the last academic year to 1,503 in the current one, a net increase of 10, according to profiles compiled by the Committee on Home-School Cooperation.
Fifteen secondary schools were allowed to operate one more Form One class, while three schools had one fewer class.
A government school, which had two Form One classes in the previous year, stopped operating them in the current school year due to relocation.
Though the number of Form One classes rose in the current school year, the sector expressed pessimism over student enrolment.
In 2025, only 49,300 students would join the Secondary School Places Allocation System – the allocation system for Form One admission – the Education Bureau said. This is an eight-year low.
Will the ‘dragon baby effect’ last?
Lawmaker Chu Kwok-keung, who represents the education sector in the Legislative Council, said the increase in classes was caused directly by the “dragon baby effect”.
Most pupils entering Form One this year were born in 2012, the Year of the Dragon. That year, 91,600 babies were born in Hong Kong. It was also the last year that mainland women whose husbands were not Hong Kong permanent residents were still allowed to give birth in the city.
In Chinese culture, the Year of the Dragon is regarded as the most auspicious for childbirth because the mythical creature symbolises might and intelligence.
Chu said this year was likely to be the “final peak” in the number of Form One classes.
“It will definitely decline in the coming years,” he said. “The birth rate is decreasing year by year. Some schools will not be able to sustain eventually.”
The projected population of Form One students aged 12 will drop by a quarter from 68,300 this year to 51,500 in 2030, according to a bureau paper presented to Legco.
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What’s the impact of the city’s talent scheme?
Chu, who is also a principal, said almost every secondary school in his area, North district, had about 10 more Form One students on average this year after the implementation of the government’s Top Talent Pass Scheme in December 2023.
The government earlier announced that 85,635 dependent children had arrived in Hong Kong with applicants approved under various talent admission schemes from 2023 to September this year.
Lawmaker Lawrence Tang Fei said the increase in Form One classes was due to the influx of children of talent and the high-quality education in Hong Kong.
“Parents from mainland China think Hong Kong’s education system is more humane, because we don’t have a revision session at night like schools in mainland China have,” he said.
Why do Form One classes matter?
The number of Form One classes in a public school determines whether it can survive in the future. Schools that can only run one Form One class in the future are required to submit a survival plan to officials for approval and have to wind down operations if their proposals are rejected.
According to the committee’s Secondary School Profiles, seven schools were allowed to operate two Form One classes for two consecutive academic years.
These schools are not allowed to increase the number of Form One classes in the future under the bureau’s rules and their survival is threatened if the student population continues to fall drastically.