- Neither a criminal conviction nor a prison sentence can impact the former president’s eligibility to return to the White House
- The Republican candidate is a first-time offender for a non-violent crime; it is unlikely to he will go to jail with this background
Can Donald Trump be US president despite his criminal conviction? Photo: BloombergDonald Trump has been criminally convicted by a New York court for covering up a hush money payment to a porn star illegally. This ruling, however, will not be a hurdle for the Republican candidate to pursue his campaign to retake the White House. This holds even if he were sentenced to prison before the November 5 election.
Here’s why.
How can Trump be president despite his conviction?
The US Constitution only requires that presidents be at least 35 years old and US citizens who have lived in the country for 14 years.
Neither a criminal conviction nor a prison sentence would affect Trump’s eligibility or his ability to become president. In theory, he could be sworn in from jail or prison if he were to unseat Democratic US President Joe Biden in the November 5 election.
Jailhouse presidential campaigns are not unprecedented in US history.
Socialist Eugene Debs unsuccessfully ran for president from prison in the 1920 election, though unlike Trump he was not a serious contender.
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Will Trump go to prison?
It is not yet known what sentence, if any, the judge will impose.
Trump is a first-time offender for a non-violent crime, and it is rare for people with no criminal history who are convicted only of falsification of business records to be sentenced to prison in New York. Punishments like fines or probation are more common.
The maximum sentence for Trump’s crime of falsifying business records is up to four years in prison, but in cases involving prison time, defendants are typically sentenced to a year or less.
If punished beyond a fine, Trump could be placed under home confinement or subjected to a curfew rather than imprisoned.
As a former president, he has a lifetime Secret Service detail, and the logistics of keeping him safe behind bars could be complicated.
Trump could also be released on bail while appealing his conviction.
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How could the guilty verdict affect the election?
While the hush money case is widely seen as the least consequential of the four criminal prosecutions Trump faces, the guilty verdict could have implications for the election.
Opinion polls show a guilty verdict could cost him votes in an election that will potentially be decided by just tens of thousands of votes in a handful of battleground states.
One in four Republicans said they would not vote for Trump if he was found guilty in a criminal trial, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters in April. In the same survey, 60 per cent of independents said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a crime.