China’s population falls for second consecutive year in 2023 as the annual birth rate hits a record low, deaths rise

The falling number of new babies resulted in the lowest birth rate since records began in 1949, with 6.39 births for every 1,000 people, compared with 6.77 in 2022.

Last year, 11.1 million people also died, pushing the national death rate to 7.87 per 1,000 people.

Authorities have not disclosed the number of coronavirus-related deaths after China dropped its stringent health control measures at the end of 2022, but the death rate last year was an uptick from 7.37 per thousand the year before.

China’s official population data includes its 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, as well as servicemen, but excludes foreigners.

World population up 75 million this year, standing at 8 billion on Jan. 1

The world’s second-largest economy, having once significantly benefited from a demographic dividend, will have to tackle challenges including fewer working-age people, weaker spending power and a strained social security system as its population ages further, researchers have warned.

China’s overall population is set to see steeper decline in the coming years, said professor Peng Xizhe from the Centre for Population and Development Policy Studies at Fudan University.

As the cloud of the coronavirus pandemic wanes, and pronatalist policies “more or less make some difference”, the number of newborns per year might rebound a little but is unlikely to exceed 10 million, he said.

“A rise in deaths related to Covid-19 may have occurred in early 2023 … Looking ahead, as the population ages, annual deaths will continue growing in the future, surpassing 10 million people each year,” Peng said.

“Therefore, with deaths outnumbering births, it’s almost certain that the population will go on with negative growth.”

China’s population growth had been slowing since 2016 as the high cost of raising children, a greater pursuit of individualism and a diversified lifestyle dampen enthusiasm to start a family. The country’s zero-Covid policies, implemented between 2020 and late 2022, are also perceived to have contributed to the slide.

India overtook China as the world’s most populous country in 2023, according to projections from the United Nations.

In Japan, a third of today’s 18-year-olds may not have children

Li Xunlei, chief economist with Zhongtai Securities, projected that China’s population would dip below 1.4 billion by 2027, and 1.2 billion by 2049.

“It took Japan 12 years [from 1994 to 2006] to transit from an aged society to a super-aged one, whereas China will do it within 11 years,” he said in an article published in October.

According to the World Bank, a country is defined as “aged” when the share of people aged 65 and above is 14 per cent or more, and “super-aged” when it exceeds 20 per cent. In China, the proportion of people aged 65 surpassed 14 per cent for the first time in 2021.

Beijing has rolled out a series of measures in recent years in an attempt to reverse the ageing trend and also boost childbirths, but they have failed to yield results.

In 2021, Beijing eased birth restrictions to allow couples to have three children, having earlier relaxed its one-child policy in January 2016 in favour of a two-child policy.

The three-child policy was followed by a mixture of incentives from local governments, ranging from prolonged parental leave to tax cuts and cash rewards for families with more than one child.

Over 4,600 Hong Kong families with newborns to receive HK$20,000

Despite these efforts, China needs to build a more integrated policy system to foster a supportive environment for childbearing, said Yuan Xin, a professor of demography at Nankai University’s School of Economics.

“Such a system should focus on equality and needs to be consistent across the country,” he said.

“There should not be big differences in the treatment of different people because of their birth order, race, the province they live, and whether they’re from urban or rural areas.”