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South China Sea: Analysis

South China Sea: Analysis
The latest news, analysis and opinion on South China Sea: Analysis. In-depth analysis, industry insights and expert opinion.
last updated:
24 August, 2024
People in Hanoi protest over China’s 2012 announcement that it will open nine oil and gas lots in waters in the South China Sea. Photo: AP
South China Sea

Opinion | Vietnam wants a South China Sea dispute resolution pact with teeth, not more politics

Asean member states and China are a step closer to forming a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea after years of operating a toothless diplomatic pact that has failed to reduce tensions.

South China Sea

Opinion | What a stranded ship in South China Sea says about China-Philippine ties

South China Sea

How the US clouds China-Asean progress in South China Sea

South China Sea

Opinion | How Trump could upend South China Sea calculations all round

Trump’s transactional diplomacy risks complicating the hedging of stakeholders from Philippines to Vietnam, and adding unpredictability for China.

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Illustration: Craig Stephens
South China Sea

South China Sea conflict risks to rise in Trump’s second term, academic forecasts

The year ahead is likely to see Washington take a more aggressive approach to Beijing, while other disputes in the waterway continue.

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South China Sea

Global Impact | Waves continue in South China Sea as China warns against ‘provocative actions’

In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we recap the latest in the South China Sea.

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South China Sea

Explainer | Who is winning the fight for the South China Sea’s resources?

Claimants are competing for fish, oil and gas amid unresolved maritime boundaries and differing interpretations of law.

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A diplomatic note regarding Luconia Shoals in the South China Sea has drawn attention to nations’ resource rights in the disputed waterway. Photo: Handout
South China Sea

Why Philippine warning of South China Sea war may not be cause for serious alarm

Manila’s defence chief said towing away a grounded ship would be an act of war, but one analyst said that is ‘not a good option’ for China.

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South China Sea

Can mini-lateral pacts help Manila navigate the South China Sea’s choppy waters?

The Philippines should focus on security ties with neighbours rather than hoping that Asean can secure a Code of Conduct, analysts say.

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South China Sea

Explainer | What is Beijing’s 9-dash line in the South China Sea and what does it mean?

The cartographer’s mark was first drawn on official maps 80 years ago but has been the subject of numerous interpretations.

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China defines its claim to the South China Sea with a dashed line. Photo: AP
US-China relations

As No 2 US envoy ends Pacific tour, Beijing scores a diplomatic win on Taiwan

After Beijing envoy demands ‘correction’, Pacific Islands Forum scraps Taiwan reference from its annual summit’s final communique.

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US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell (left) attends a ceremony in Port Vila, Vanuatu, on Thursday to repatriate sacred human relics seized in New York by the FBI in 2016. Campbell also attended the opening of America’s new embassy in the Pacific nation. Photo: Reuters
Vietnam

As South China Sea stakes ratchet ever higher, Vietnam seeks out calmer waters

Hanoi’s new leadership is doubling down on ‘bamboo diplomacy’ to navigate choppy geopolitical currents and protect economic gains.

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Taiwan

China law enforcers mount joint sea patrols to extend maritime reach: observers

Beijing says latest operation designed to ‘enhance maritime traffic control and emergency rescue capabilities’ as Taiwan keeps watchful eye.

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South China Sea

China vows ‘strong measures’ against Philippines in South China Sea

Sabina Shoal is latest flashpoint between Beijing and Manila as foreign ministry decries ‘infringing behaviour’.

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The BRP Teresa Magbanua, flagship of the Philippine Coast Guard, has been deployed to Sabina Shoal since April. Photo: Handout
South China Sea

How will Manila answer as Beijing shifts its South China Sea tactics to the sky?

A confrontation between the two countries’ air forces has raised concerns that Beijing may use its aggressive maritime tactics in the sky.

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A Philippine Air Force NC-212 light transport plane. The same model of aircraft was involved in an incident on August 8 involving PLA Air Force jets dropping flares in its flight path. Photo: Facebook / @ Alakdan Division
South China Sea

Beijing bankrolls science missions as conflict heats up South China Sea

China deploys several advanced ships and technologies to explore marine biology, fisheries and mineral resources.

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South China Sea

How is China’s ‘maritime militia’ supporting the PLA in the South China Sea?

Hundreds of fishing vessels used as auxiliary forces are ‘floating pieces of sovereignty’ that help the PLA with surveillance, reclamation support and disaster relief.

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South China Sea

China urged to set deadline for Philippines to withdraw from contested shoal

China should present time frame for withdrawal from Second Thomas Shoal and block supplies if Manila does not comply, says Wu Shicun.

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The grounded BRP Sierra Madre has become the focus of increasing tension between Beijing and Manila at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. Photo: AFP
China-Philippines relations

Global Impact | Stakes higher than ever in South China Sea, scepticism looms despite meeting

In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we look at the situation in the South China Sea after talks between China and the Philippines took place in Manila.

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South China Sea

Opinion | South China Sea: Marcos is resisting drastic moves, but for how long?

Calls in the Philippines are growing, for measures from building a lighthouse on Second Thomas Shoal to inundating China with litigation.

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South China Sea

Beijing exploiting talks to assert control over South China Sea: analysts

Analysts argue Beijing’s negotiations with the Philippines are being exploited to normalise China’s control over contested territory.

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Philippine coastguard personnel prepare rubber fenders after a Chinese coastguard vessel blocked the way during a resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal in March. Photo: Reuters
South China Sea

Opinion | Philippines’ dithering over South China Sea clash fuelled by US doubts

Dithering official statements reflect not only Philippine fears of unwanted escalation but also, crucially, doubts over US defence commitments.

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Illustration: Craig Stephens
South China Sea

Opinion | Asean all adrift over South China Sea consensus

Divisions are undermining Asean centrality as nations from Malaysia to the Philippines disagree on the China threat and nurture different priorities.

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Malaysia

Malaysia urged to get tougher with Beijing over South China Sea claims

Toshi Yoshihara, an American expert who’s set to brief Malaysia’s armed forces on China’s military, said prioritising short-term trade benefits over addressing the territorial conflict could cost Kuala Lumpur dearly in the long run.

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South China Sea

Opinion | In the South China Sea, Beijing can ill afford to be seen as a bully

China should rethink its approach to the Philippines in favour of de-escalation and genuinely mutually beneficial agreements. Meanwhile, the Philippines should maintain robust communication with China, avoid getting dragged into a US-led ‘Asian Nato’ and engage with Asean for stability.

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Illustration: Craig Stephens
The Philippines

Is Beijing turning to ‘cognitive warfare’ against Manila over South China Sea?

Analysts say Beijing’s claims about an alleged deal on the South China Sea are likely a form of psychological manipulation aimed at breaking the Philippines’ resolve.

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Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr says he wants to hear China’s recording of the alleged South China Sea deal. Photo: AFP
South China Sea

Opinion | Why Marcos should restart South China Sea oil and gas talks with China

Jointly exploring and exploiting the oil and gas in the South China Sea would invigorate ties and solve Philippine gas supply woes. But Marcos Jnr must find the political determination and courage to make the first move.

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South China Sea

China’s threat to release audio of Spratly deal shows Beijing’s ‘frustration’

China feels the Philippines has broken its word and badly damaged political trust, observer says.

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