South China Sea conflict risks to rise in Trump’s second term, academic forecasts

The year ahead is likely to see Washington take a more aggressive approach to Beijing, while other disputes in the waterway continue

Reading Time:3 minutes

US president-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration is expected to take a confrontational approach to Beijing, fuelling tensions in the South China Sea, according to a Chinese expert. Photo: Reuters

Published: 10:00pm, 6 Jan 2025Updated: 10:54pm, 6 Jan 2025

The risk of a China-US conflict in the South China Sea is set to rise in 2025, fuelled by incoming president Donald Trump’s expected assertive and confrontational approach, a prominent Chinese scholar has warned.

Wu Shicun, founder of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies and a former policy adviser to Beijing, said the new Trump administration “will be more impulsive and aggressive” than its predecessor on issues relating to the disputed waterway.

In an article published on Saturday by the Chinese foreign ministry’s World Affairs Press journal, Wu also predicted that China’s stand-offs with the Philippines and Vietnam would continue, as well as the challenges facing the long-delayed code of conduct.

“The risk of some form of conflict between China and the US in the South China Sea will escalate as a result of increased US military activities and rammed up countermeasures by China,” he wrote.

Beijing claims most of the rocks, shoals, reefs, and surrounding waters of what it calls Nanhai Zhudao – the South China Sea islands – putting it at odds with Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines which have their own, overlapping claims.

According to Wu, the US is likely to strengthen its security commitment to the Philippines and other claimant countries in Trump’s second term, within the framework of its “proxy” strategy in the disputed waterway.