Richard Heydarian

Opinion | In the South China Sea, Beijing can ill afford to be seen as a bully

As the more powerful party, China should rethink its approach to the Philippines in favour of de-escalation and genuinely mutually beneficial agreements

Meanwhile, the Philippines should maintain robust communication with China, avoid getting dragged into a US-led ‘Asian Nato’ and engage with Asean for stability

Reading Time:4 minutes

Why you can trust SCMP

Richard Heydarian

Published: 5:30am, 28 May 2024

Raising tensions in the South China Sea is “the last thing we would like”, said Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr recently, when pressed on whether Manila would adopt more aggressive tactics, such as the water cannons used by the Chinese. “And that [using water cannons] will certainly do that,” he said, dismissing the idea.

In recent months, Chinese maritime forces have repeatedly aimed water cannons at Philippine resupply and patrol missions in the disputed South China Sea, damaging vessels and injuring servicemen. Manila is facing growing pressure to adopt stronger countermeasures.

To bolster its position, the Philippines has joined an emerging alliance, nicknamed the “Squad”, with the United States, Australia and Japan to counter a powerful China. It has also expanded the scope of its annual military drills with Western allies – this year’s Balikatan conducted, for the first time, drills beyond its 12 nautical-mile territorial sea as well as close to Taiwan.

But this tilt towards the US could jeopardise Manila’s strategic autonomy and further alienate China – as well as concern fellow Asean members fretting over the risk of a new cold war.

For China, its actions in the South China Sea risk its reputation as a responsible stakeholder in the Indo-Pacific, accelerating the US’ expanding military footprint in the Philippines and, more worryingly, causing Beijing to sleepwalk towards an armed confrontation with a key US treaty ally.

The upshot is a brinkmanship that could tip over into mutual losses, especially if each side presses its advantage at the expense of sustainable and peaceful management of an inherently intractable conflict. It’s high time the Philippines and China work to avoid conflict by pursuing mutually beneficial agreements, rather than rely on military might and diplomatic intransigence.