South China Sea: how will Manila answer as Beijing shifts tactics from water to sky?
- A confrontation between the two countries’ air forces has raised concerns that Beijing may use its aggressive maritime tactics in the sky
Analysts said Manila must urgently establish clear rules of engagement and bolster its air force capabilities to manage potential future conflicts. However, they did not believe it would lead to the country invoking its Mutual Defence Treaty (MDT) with the United States, as that might escalate the situation into a direct military conflict, which the treaty is meant to deter.
China justified its action on Saturday by saying the PAF aircraft had “illegally” entered the airspace of Huangyan Dao, the Chinese name for the Scarborough Shoal in the West Philippine Sea, Manila’s term for the waters of the South China Sea that lie within its exclusive economic zone.
In a statement on Sunday, President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr denounced China’s action describing it as “unjustified, illegal and reckless”.
It was the first reported incident involving the PLA Air Force disrupting a PAF operation since Marcos assumed office in June 2022.