Kiwi superstar James McDonald is the consensus pick of the South China Morning Post’s racing tipsters to win Wednesday night’s Longines International Jockeys’ Championship (IJC) at Happy Valley.

Jockey Club odds compilers could not split McDonald and Ryan Moore when they opened their IJC fixed-odds market, but while punters look set to send off the British rider as the favourite, our panel of experts believe the New Zealander is a better bet.

There are four IJC point-scoring races – the fourth, fifth, seventh and eighth events at the city circuit – with 12 points for first, six points for second and four points for third in those contests.

Who will collect the HK$600,000 first prize? Here is what our analysts think.

Vincent Ho, Zac Purton, Karis Teetan and Lyle Hewitson pose with the International Jockeys’ Championship trophy.

Sam Agars – racing editor

McDonald, who has been close to winning an IJC title a few times before, could break through for a first success on Happy Valley’s marquee night.

While Pierre Ng Pang-chi’s Amazing Ace and Flagship Warrior for Caspar Fownes look strong point-scoring opportunities for McDonald, the Kiwi may have to wait until the final leg aboard Douglas Whyte’s Gameplayer Elite to seal the deal.

Karis Teetan seems to be McDonald’s biggest danger, while Mickael Barzalona, Hollie Doyle and Tom Marquand could also get into double figures.

Karis Teetan celebrates winning the 2019 International Jockeys’ Championship.

Mark Worwood – form guide editor

Teetan won the IJC in 2019, and after missing last year’s tournament because a career-threatening illness derailed the early part of his season, he could bounce back in the best possible fashion.

Sixth Generation for Jamie Richards and Snowalot for David Hayes are Teetan’s best IJC rides, while the Mauritian jockey also jumps aboard Ng’s Super Commander and Danny Shum Chap-shing’s Lightning Bolt, both Happy Valley specialists.

However, Teetan is unlikely to dominate, with McDonald, Yuga Kawada, Moore, Zac Purton and Lyle Hewitson also projected to score 10 or more points.

Ryan Moore lifts the 2010 International Jockeys’ Championship silverware.

Jack Dawling – racing reporter

Moore will receive the 2023 World’s Best Jockey award on Friday night, but he could collect a third IJC trophy 48 hours before then.

Moore, who won the IJC in 2009 and 2010, rides the well-fancied M Unicorn for Fownes in the second leg, and it would not be a surprise if the British jockey scooped consecutive point-scoring races when he reunites with Whyte’s Ivy League, a son of Galileo whom he partnered to a couple of pre-import victories in Ireland.

Purton may be Moore’s greatest threat, with the Australian forecast to match the Briton’s points tally but lose out to his rival on countback.

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Phillip Woo – racing writer

Woo’s tips have Barzalona winning the final two IJC legs on Ng’s Quantum Patch and Fownes’ Sugar Sugar, respectively, to pocket the first prize, with Marquand, McDonald and Moore fighting over the minor cheques.

Vincent Wong (Shannon) – statistics editor

Wong agrees with Woo that the IJC champion is likely to accumulate 24 points, but he favours McDonald ahead of Barzalona and Purton.

Racing Post Online

The ratings project IJC points for nine of the 12 riders, with Kawada expected to edge out Barzalona, Hewitson and Moore.

Tom Wood – Jockey Club commentator

If Wood’s selections for the four IJC legs end up being 100 per cent correct, Rachel King and McDonald would dead heat for first place.

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