Now come in, punters. Take a seat. Coffee? Tea? We need a talk. About Joao Moreira. Yes, the Magic Man.

It seems the right time to bring this up while Joao is not just riding winners at a ridiculous rate, even more ridiculous than before, but he is also throwing in circus tricks.

Now, the man's a star. No doubt about it. He's definitely got something special, but you are aware that the horse still does all the running, right?

Because it's hard sometimes to find an explanation for just how positive you are about Joao's horse winning. I mean, we might have hit rock bottom on the weekend when you sent out Unbeatable Guts at $17, but there have been some puzzlers.

You're backing a lot of winners following the Magic Man, no doubt, but here's the rub - it's very difficult to win at when his rides are averaging about $50 for every 10.

Looking at it one way, that's pretty amazing.

The downside of being the Magic Man is that Joao has become the go-to man for almost every long-term loser in Hong Kong

At that price, Moreira's mounts are expected to win just 16.5 per cent of the time according to money wagered and he is more than living up to that promise with 43 wins from 165 rides.

But the trick is in the word average, since it's the ones shorter than that average price where the winners tend to be found. Joao hasn't had a winner longer than $78 and only 26 rides at $70 or longer.

He has won with 34 of his 86 rides at under $40 and nine of 79 over that price and what that means is that flat betting the Magic Man has you in the poor house doing 20 per cent of your outlay. Even the rebate isn't going to help you there.

Contrast that with a couple of other jockeys who are flying under your radar, Karis Teetan and Chad Schofield, who are in demand as the sixth and third most-used jockeys, but winning you 110 per cent and 24.9 per cent respectively on your outlay.

An honourable mention for Brett Prebble, too, who is also showing a profit and that isn't easy as his rides, on average, are half the odds of the mounts of Teetan and Schofield.

Backing Joao indiscriminately is like backing every number at roulette. Lot of collects, empty pockets at the finish

So Joao might seem like he is winning every race and the shortcut to backing a winner also seems obvious but here's the thing - backing Joao indiscriminately is like backing every number at roulette. Lot of collects, empty pockets at the finish.

One of the unsatisfactory aspects of trying to assess a jockey's performance via market odds is how much the jockey makes the odds, rather than the horse, and that has become very much in evidence in the past 12 months.

The downside of being the Magic Man is that Joao has become the go-to man for almost every long-term loser in Hong Kong. Take a look at some of these beauties which have gone out short prices under him this season - Cartoon Fay Fay, Kiram, Ashkiyr, Double Point, Heavenisaracehorse, Axiom, Excitable Boy, Top Ace, Zachary (twice, but did actually win one of them). The list goes on.

Joao's a superstar, sure - but considering what a magnet he has become for these kinds of horses, he needs to be more magic than man to keep up that strike rate.

Lead-up races aren't great pointers to internationals

A lot of import will be accorded the three Group Twos on Saturday, collectively the "international trials" as they once were called, but history shows that winning this one isn't the greatest pointer to winning on December 13.

If they are international-bound, they will be there on Saturday. And we ... will get a better idea of what cards Hong Kong has to play next month

And there should be a lot of attention paid. In the 2015 version of these trial events, it doesn't look like anyone is going to be missing.

If they are international-bound, they will be there on Saturday.

And we, and the rest of the world, will get a better idea of what cards Hong Kong has to play next month.

But if you're looking for an ironclad link between results, you'll be looking in the wrong place.

In the last 10 runnings of the three races only five horses have managed the double of winning the Jockey Club (insert Sprint, Cup or Mile) and then the Hong Kong (insert equivalent). That's five from 30 possibles.

In the Sprint and the Cup, five of the 10 winners on international day didn't contest the lead-up. Obviously, foreign winners of the grand final were a factor, especially in the 2,000m Cup which has had only five local winners from the last 10 runnings.

Conversely, the Hong Kong Mile, where the locals haven't been beaten since 2005, has seen eight of the last 10 winners contest the designated lead-up.

Only Japan's Hat Trick and John Size's first-up winner two seasons back, Glorious Days, have spoiled the record.

Since the trials were opened to overseas runners, it has not been an opportunity taken up very often, and largely a flop when it has.

The exception was Singapore star Rocket Man, who dead-heated in the lead-up before a nose second in the Hong Kong Sprint to J J The Jet Plane.

But even when the winner on international day was a local there has been a pattern of defeat in or absence from the Jockey Club trial events.

Sprint winners Lucky Nine (campaigning in Japan) and Absolute Champion (preferred to bypass) didn't run and Natural Blitz, Inspiration, Sacred Kingdom (2009) and, famously, Aerovelocity last year were beaten in the Jockey Club Sprint.

The past two Hong Kong Cup winners, Designs On Rome and Akeed Mofeed were defeated in the Jockey Club Cup but it was a different matter on the big day.

Good Ba Ba won three Hong Kong Miles in a row but was beaten in the second and third years in the lead-up run.

All that said, winners of the Jockey Club Cup, Sprint and Mile races have generally acquitted themselves well on grand final day - they just may have spent all their petrol tickets winning the lead-up, while others had a smidgeon of improvement still to come.

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