As the season winds down and the better horses enjoy a well-deserved break, conjecture off the track ensures that June is not such a write-off.

In the next week or so, the licensing committee – a group mainly made up of non-racing stewards (or board members as they would be known elsewhere), but also having a stipendiary steward in Steve Railton involved – will announce the jockeys for the 2015-16 season.

Could the roster be set for a massive overhaul? It’s not simply about whether jockeys are riding well or not – there are elements of power, politics and perception at play.

It could be one of the biggest shake-ups in years with a trio of European jockeys – Olivier Doleuze, Gerald Mosse and Andreas Suborics – and local apprentice Dicky Lui Cheuk-yin potentially coming under scrutiny.

Doleuze would perhaps be the biggest shock should he be missing next term. While he is under pressure, it is not from external forces but his own body, mainly a troublesome right shoulder. 

The 43-year-old Frenchman, who has averaged around 40 winners or so every season, is on 23 winners. It’s not a remarkable fall from grace by any stretch of the imagination, and includes a career highlight with his American Grade One win on Rich Tapestry in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship.

Despite seeking treatment in Switzerland in November, the shoulder continues to give trouble and increasingly it is thought Doleuze may retire at the end of the season – if not before.

He has also lost the backing of one of his biggest supporters, Richard Gibson. Incredibly, he only had one ride at Happy Valley on Wednesday night, and seven days earlier at Sha Tin was left without a ride.

He may, however, use the off-season as a chance to rest the shoulder and hope that will allow him to continue riding. And The Griffin hopes he can pull it off, because on his day he can match it with any rider in Hong Kong.

Mosse was written off earlier in the season after being stung with the second “running and handling charge” of his storied Hong Kong career in the controversial Redkirk Warrior case. The first came in 2008 on John Moore-trained Willing Storm.

Two such charges in Hong Kong is seen as a death knell, and if he does lose his licence it is unlikely he would continue as a jockey and instead begin training, with an eye on returning.

However, over 20 years in Hong Kong, Mosse has built up a large and loyal power base and many locals would be aghast should he be given the axe.

As for Suborics, he is one of the hardest workers and a genuinely good guy. If there was a Mr Congeniality award, the Austrian would get our vote and he would be a likely winner – or at least he’d be worth a quinella play with Joao Moreira. 

However, sadly, Suborics has increasingly fallen out of favour with trainers and owners. Of his last 100 rides, 13 were in triple figures. Of the remaining 87, the average starting price was around 28-1. And with only 10 winners, after riding 14, 13 and 11 winners in the previous three seasons, he’s struggling to regain a foothold and looks likely to lose his spot – an unfair and cruel reality of the cut-throat nature of the Hong Kong riding ranks.

Lui is the interesting case. A winner of the last two champion apprentice titles – in a field of two – Lui has been suspended seven times for careless riding. A third title is beyond him – Alvin Ng Ka-chun will eclipse him – while he might not even finish second with 10-pound claimer Jack Wong Ho-nam, who only started in mid-March and was only allowed to start riding at Happy Valley on Wednesday night, hot on his heels.

There would normally be some buffer afforded to a champion apprentice but twice the stewards have noted in post-race reports that Lui’s careless riding would come under notice at the end of the season. One gets the impression the Jockey Club is not prepared to put up with such a risk to other horses and riders.

So who would replace them?

Word on the street is that Australian jockey Chad Schofield is a leading contender. The son of South African rider Glyn, who was based in Hong Kong for the best part of a decade before relocating to Sydney, is only 21 but has already won some of Australia’s biggest races, including the Cox Plate and the Newmarket Handicap.

Some older and wiser heads remember Schofield as a young kid, watching the races from the clubhouse playground. 

And while there’s been a large push for fellow Sydney-based rider Blake Shinn to make the move, it’s understood he has withdrawn his application, while still aiming to come perhaps on a three-month contract at the end of the term.

However, with three Europeans potentially heading for the exit – and the possibility of no French jockey for the first time in the modern era – finding a European jockey should be high on the priority list.

As much as race fans would love to see a Ryan Moore or a Christophe Soumillon, the Jockey Club’s choices tend to touch on the fringes. Think the likes of Nicola Pinna.

The problem is, European jockeys don’t always work in Hong Kong given the tight racing, the tactical nous, and the fickle nature of Hong Kong owners. Fail to hit the ground running and you quickly end up on the black list.

In recent seasons, high-profile jockeys given short-term stints have included Frankel’s jockey Tom Queally (won three from 78 rides), former Godolphin retainer Mickael Barzalona (one from 42), one-time Coolmore top jockey Colm O’Donoghue (one from 75) and Qatar Racing’s current number one Andrea Atzeni (three from 79).

The most likely to come are Umberto Rispoli or Maxime Guyon, both who have already proven themselves in Hong Kong. However, Guyon is the retained rider for the Wertheimer brothers, so would only agree to a short stint, which leaves Rispoli.

His stats were fair earlier this season – 16 winners from 232 rides – and he would easily fill the void left by those loyal to Mosse and Doleuze.

Another jockey potentially in the mix is Cristian Demuro, taking over from brother Mirco. who is now firmly entrenched in Japan’s riding ranks.

However, perhaps we should just expect the unexpected when the names are revealed next week.

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