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Currencies

Currencies
Currency market action focused on developments with the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar.
last updated:
9 September, 2024
US President Donald Trump and former Chinese vice-premier Liu He shake hands after signing the phase-one trade deal at the White House in 2020. A review of the deal during Trump’s second term may put pressure on China to fulfil its missed requirements. Photo: Reuters
US-China relations

Trump’s America First Trade Policy: US-China 2020 deal is again under scrutiny

Nomura analysts say Trump’s ‘rather hawkish’ memo on China raises concerns that Beijing will be forced to comply with original trade terms that it failed to meet.

Yuan

Chinese yuan surges after Trump goes easy on China in inaugural address

Hong Kong economy

Opinion | Hong Kong’s dollar peg is an important bulwark against volatility

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Yuan

China’s yuan on the rise in oil trade, but petrodollar here to stay: report

Helped by digital yuan and advancements in financial tech, more yuan-backed transactions are taking place in crude settlement.

China’s yuan has grown in stature, becoming more commonly used as a medium of exchange in the international oil trade. Photo: AFP
United States

Opinion | Trump’s plans could trigger liquidity crises across Europe and Asia

Inflationary pressure and a growing deficit would turn the US into a liquidity-sucking force.

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Yuan

To boost yuan, China’s central bank allows firms to borrow more foreign debt

For companies that have reached the upper limit of overseas financing, a relaxation may be welcome, but the move’s effectiveness remains unclear as rate spread with US dollar widens.

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Banking & finance

Hong Kong’s US-dollar peg gets emphatic defence from HKMA CEO

Speculation about ending the peg reflects ‘misconceptions due to a lack of understanding’, says head of de facto central bank.

The Hong Kong dollar has been pegged to the US dollar since 1983. Photo: Shutterstock
Yuan

My Take | Beijing to fiercely defend yuan exchange rate in 2025 to avoid a repeat of 2015

The economic and political costs of a weakened yuan far outweigh the possible benefits China could gain from boosting exports.

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Yuan

China’s central bank rhetoric on yuan stability takes aim at depreciation risks

An exchange rate of 7.6 to the US dollar by the end of 2025 could be on the cards, analysts say, as Donald Trump’s impending policies may further weaken the battered yuan.

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Banking & finance

China hits record panda bond issuance in 2024, with analysts bullish for 2025

With more yuan-denominated panda bonds issued last year than any other, analysts expect even bigger numbers in 2025.

The total issuance of China’s panda bonds in 2024 was the highest in any single year on record. Photo: Reuters
United States

Opinion | Up in the air whether US economic arrows will hit the mark

If the Trump 2.0 team is as uncoordinated as Trump 1.0, we will see arrows flying everywhere.

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Donald Trump at a presidential campaign event, in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on October 29. Photo: Reuters
Yuan

China’s battered offshore yuan hits 2-year low against US dollar

And China’s ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy could further widen interest-rate differentials, straining the yuan more, analyst predicts.

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United States

Opinion | Trump’s threats won’t hold back Brics push to de-dollarise

US dominance is pervasive but not infallible, and a divided Brics can still find common ground in the pursuit of a multipolar global order.

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Yuan

China’s record dividend payout puts yuan under pressure as US-China tensions simmer

Interim dividends by Hong Kong-listed Chinese firms are set to reach US$12.9 billion in the first quarter, an all-time high for the period.

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The dividend bonanza is adding pressure on the Chinese yuan already weighed by a resurgent dollar and the prospect of growing US-China tensions. Photo: Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images
United States

The View | Why world should agree to hand nominal leadership to the US

The US simply cannot afford to sustain its dominance so there’s no real danger, but pandering to Trump’s vanity could have its rewards.

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Incoming US president Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election night event at the Palm Beach Convention Centre in Palm Beach, Florida, on November 6. Photo: Getty Images
South Korea martial law 2024

Yoon’s ‘crazy’ actions rattle South Korea’s currency and economy

Experts say political polarisation and deepening post-martial law crisis could hold back investment in the country.

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The Philippines

‘Erasing history’?: Marcos Jnr accused of political bias over new banknotes

A critic of Ferdinand Marcos Jnr accuses him of attempting to reshape the country’s history by removing the Aquinos from the 500-peso notes.

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Yuan

US Fed’s hawkish rate-cut forecast slams China’s yuan

China’s currency, hammered since Trump’s re-election, has depreciated further against the US dollar, despite the yuan’s share among global payments rising.

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The Chinese yuan’s latest decline was driven by the US Fed’s fresh projection of only two quarter-point rate cuts in 2025. Photo: Reuters
Japan

The View | Japan’s economic prospects a big theme in Asian real estate

The most popular sectors in Japan’s stock market are those benefiting from domestic demand-driven growth, such as property and retail.

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Yuan

China urged to anchor yuan to non-US dollar currencies to empower domestic tools

China Finance 40 Forum think tank suggests temporarily anchoring the yuan to a basket of currencies, particularly the euro.

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China's economic recovery

China may bank on balance-sheet expansion, not rate cuts, for growth: economist

While Beijing is unlikely to implement universal consumption subsidies, officials may try to boost spending by raising incomes, according to Nomura’s Lu Ting.

China’s Politburo has underscored the “all-round” expansion of domestic demand as a priority for next year, calling to vigorously boost consumption. Photo: AFP
China-Africa relations

African banks set up shop in China as Beijing pushes for yuan-based trade

African banks are positioning themselves to take full economic advantage as Beijing seeks to de-dollarise its trade.

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More African banks are opening branches and offices in China to help facilitate growing trade ties. Photo: Shutterstock
Asean

Will Trump’s tariff threat push Southeast Asian nations away from China-led Brics?

Analysts warn nations to consider the risks of joining Brics, which could bring economic gains but may alienate the US and lead to trade barriers.

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Digital currencies

Bybit CEO says Chinese can trade crypto though VPN, but not with yuan

Bybit CEO Ben Zhou says the company plans to reapply for a Hong Kong licence next year even though regulators bar selling crypto to mainlanders.

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Bonds

China’s 10-year bond yield slumps to record low, pressuring yuan

‘Staggering’ new low signals ‘chilling risk forecast’ amid a deflationary spiral ‘eerily reminiscent’ of Japan’s long malaise, analyst says.

The slump in bond yields complicates the central bank’s task of stabilising the yuan, which now faces more depreciation pressure. Photo: Shutterstock
Yuan

China’s yuan hits lowest level in months as Trump tariff threats roil currencies

China’s currency is losing pace against the US dollar thanks to a wave of uncertainty following Donald Trump’s re-election.

China’s yuan has weakened considerably against the US dollar in the month since Donald Trump won a second term in the White House. Photo: Reuters
Donald Trump

Opinion | Trump’s fuming over unlikely ‘Brics currency’ belies risks of de-dollarisation

Trump’s threat of tariffs over a currency that will likely never exist is a reminder of how much clout the dollar has in the developing world.

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Yuan

China’s plans for yuan unfazed by Trump’s pledge to protect ‘mighty US dollar’

Though Donald Trump has warned against attempts to undermine the US dollar, China is unlikely to change course on yuan internationalisation.

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