Macroscope | Kamala Harris’ economic plan is bad – Trump would be worse

It has only been a month since US President Joe Biden ended his re-election bid. At the time, few believed Vice-President Kamala Harris would win the Democratic nomination unopposed, and even fewer predicted she would be leading former president Donald Trump by nearly 3 percentage points nationally by the time the Democratic National Convention got under way.

In prediction markets, where punters bet on the outcomes of particular events, the odds of a Harris victory in the election on November 5 currently stand at 54 per cent, up from 10 per cent a week before Biden bowed out, according to spread betting site PredictIt. Trump’s chances, meanwhile, stand at 49 per cent, down from 69 per cent on July 15, two days after he narrowly survived an assassination attempt.

Harris has turned the tables on Trump, fired up the Democratic base and given her party a real shot at retaining the presidency. Yet her rapid ascent in the polls is mostly attributable to the energy and enthusiasm her candidacy has injected into the previously faltering Democratic campaign.

The fact remains that Harris is the second-in-command of an administration presiding over a country that more than 60 per cent of voters believe is on the wrong track, according to an average of polls curated by Real Clear Politics. Even though the resilient United States economy is the envy of the world, the pandemic-induced inflation shock – in particular the surge in food and energy prices – remains a political liability for the Democrats.

The findings of the latest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll on August 18 showed respondents trusting Trump more on the economy and inflation, the most important issues along with immigration. This poses an acute challenge for Harris, whose progressive economic agenda builds on “Bidenomics”. It also espouses policies championed by the left wing of the Democratic Party, making it easier for the Trump campaign to paint Harris as a socialist.