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Nicholas Spiro
Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory, a specialist London-based real estate and macroeconomic advisory firm. He is an expert on advanced and emerging economies and a regular commentator on financial and macro-political developments.
There are good reasons Hong Kong’s real estate market keeps underperforming regional peers, but the prevailing narrative is too pessimistic.
A sharp sell-off in bond markets despite the Fed’s easing cycle shows investors are worried about the uncertainty around Trump’s second term.
With its expanding digital economies and key role in communications infrastructure, Asia is seeing robust investment in data centre development.
Structural reform is never easy, but for China even a messy pivot to consumption is better than staying cautious and not pivoting at all.
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There is no room for complacency on the acute threats facing Asia, but its varied real estate landscape and sources of resilience merit note.
Asia’s best hope is that the transactional side of the incoming US president wins out and he strikes a grand bargain with China.
The financial and economic risks of a second Trump term are becoming clearer for interest rate-sensitive sectors, particularly property.
The Fed is making it clear that Trump’s policies come at a price, one that he might be unwilling to pay if inflation rises more sharply.
While stricter curbs might be politically unpalatable, ensuring public housing remains accessible and affordable is a bigger concern.
The problem is not China’s leaders lacking the will to enact large-scale stimulus but whether it will work given the present challenges.
The most popular sectors in Japan’s stock market are those benefiting from domestic demand-driven growth, such as property and retail.
As Beijing and Berlin face pressure to stimulate their economies, challenges posed by Trump’s approach could prompt much-needed policy changes.
Despite the prominence of domestic and geopolitical strife, it is policy that ultimately matters most to markets in Hong Kong, Seoul, India and Japan.
While low yields might be a symptom of Japanification, evidence shows bond markets are on China’s side.
The Thai government’s optimism about the number of overall foreign arrivals suggests fewer Chinese tourists isn’t as big a problem as feared.
A widening trade war would further destabilise Europe’s largest economy as it struggles with stagnation, declining exports and geopolitical tensions.
While Beijing has eased demand-side policies dramatically, the fundamental problems in the property market remain unresolved.
Expect trade tensions to intensify dramatically at a time when many Asian economies, including China, are relying on exports to boost growth.
Hong Kong’s real estate industry cannot seem to catch a break, though the outlook is not all doom and gloom if you know where to look.
Investors are downplaying the impact of the protectionist and populist thrust of Trump 2.0 and have not even begun to price in the risks.
As Beijing prioritises stability and development over reflation, investors must reconcile themselves to the realities of Chinese policymaking.
Despite lagging investment, mainland Chinese and Hong Kong real estate markets still have unappreciated long-term growth opportunities.
Although Indian and Japanese stock markets have lost some of their lustre, more signs are needed to affirm the quality of China’s post-stimulus bull run.
The messier the outcome and the more protracted the dispute over who won, the bigger the threat to the US economy and global markets.
South Korea’s capital is in an enviable position as its office sector remains strong and its living sector holds considerable promise.
While Chinese policymakers need to bolster confidence in stimulus efforts, investors must come to terms with updated government priorities.
While there are reasons for optimism with the news coming out of the Fed and Beijing, the case for caution is much stronger.
The factors in Australia’s affordability crisis can be seen elsewhere in Asia, making it important for investors not to overlook their own markets.
Markets aside, the economy faces structural challenges. Beijing favours an unbalanced growth mix that makes it harder to boost demand.
The private student accommodation market shows great potential, but repurposing existing properties will only go so far to satisfy growing demand.
