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Nicholas Spiro
Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory, a specialist London-based real estate and macroeconomic advisory firm. He is an expert on advanced and emerging economies and a regular commentator on financial and macro-political developments.
As Beijing and Berlin face pressure to stimulate their economies, challenges posed by Trump’s approach could prompt much-needed policy changes.
Despite the prominence of domestic and geopolitical strife, it is policy that ultimately matters most to markets in Hong Kong, Seoul, India and Japan.
While low yields might be a symptom of Japanification, evidence shows bond markets are on China’s side.
The Thai government’s optimism about the number of overall foreign arrivals suggests fewer Chinese tourists isn’t as big a problem as feared.
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A widening trade war would further destabilise Europe’s largest economy as it struggles with stagnation, declining exports and geopolitical tensions.
While Beijing has eased demand-side policies dramatically, the fundamental problems in the property market remain unresolved.
Expect trade tensions to intensify dramatically at a time when many Asian economies, including China, are relying on exports to boost growth.
Hong Kong’s real estate industry cannot seem to catch a break, though the outlook is not all doom and gloom if you know where to look.
Investors are downplaying the impact of the protectionist and populist thrust of Trump 2.0 and have not even begun to price in the risks.
As Beijing prioritises stability and development over reflation, investors must reconcile themselves to the realities of Chinese policymaking.
Despite lagging investment, mainland Chinese and Hong Kong real estate markets still have unappreciated long-term growth opportunities.
Although Indian and Japanese stock markets have lost some of their lustre, more signs are needed to affirm the quality of China’s post-stimulus bull run.
The messier the outcome and the more protracted the dispute over who won, the bigger the threat to the US economy and global markets.
South Korea’s capital is in an enviable position as its office sector remains strong and its living sector holds considerable promise.
While Chinese policymakers need to bolster confidence in stimulus efforts, investors must come to terms with updated government priorities.
While there are reasons for optimism with the news coming out of the Fed and Beijing, the case for caution is much stronger.
The factors in Australia’s affordability crisis can be seen elsewhere in Asia, making it important for investors not to overlook their own markets.
Markets aside, the economy faces structural challenges. Beijing favours an unbalanced growth mix that makes it harder to boost demand.
The private student accommodation market shows great potential, but repurposing existing properties will only go so far to satisfy growing demand.
Beijing and Berlin need to restore confidence in their economies, but political and ideological resistance to rises in public spending runs deep.
Despite their many differences, Hong Kong and Singapore’s property markets both show that a monetary easing cycle is not a panacea.
Surging stock markets show investors pay no heed to the dangerous dysfunction in US politics, but ratings agencies are ahead of the curve.
While multiple factors drive market booms, the advances in real estate transparency in Asia are significant and should not be downplayed.
Despite fears China has entered have entered a ‘balance sheet recession’, the country has more tools than Japan to reflate its economy.
Housing has risen to the top of Taiwan’s policy agenda, but differences between the government and central bank are slowing progress.
Central banks might have kept interest rates too high for too long. Cutting them too quickly could prove even more costly.
Lower office rents, a consumption boom and big gains in market transparency and liquidity are driving India ahead while others are lagging.
The Federal Reserve’s priority must be to ensure fears of a deeper downturn do not become self-fulfilling, especially given what the US election could unleash.
South Korea and Australia provide a cautionary tale of the limits of monetary policy when other factors also influence the outlook for residential property.
While her economic policies are not the answer, she would not damage US democracy, undermine Federal Reserve independence and sow chaos.
