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SCMP Economy Series

China’s economic outlook for the second half of 2021

This series looks at China's economic outlook for the second half of 2021 as it continues its recovery from a coronavirus-hit 2020.

Updated: 12 Aug, 2021
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[1]

‘China’s tectonic U-turn’: Beijing moves away from rapid economic growth

Beijing still wants to double the nation’s GDP by 2035, but ‘policymakers feel they need to address social issues to ensure social fairness and justice’, while also protecting state enterprises and the environment.

03 Aug, 2021
Constraints that Beijing has placed on consumption, manufacturing and monetary policies suggest China is heading down a slower economic growth path. Illustration: Henry Wong
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[2]

Why the backbone of China’s economic machine is falling apart

Small and micro businesses are the backbone of China’s private sector, but many of their owners say they are failing as most help seems to be going to state-backed sectors.

05 Aug, 2021
A woman tries to sell jewellery in front of a closed shop in Beijing. China’s smallest businesses and the self-employed have been hit especially hard as retail consumption has taken a big hit. Photo: Reuters
[3]

For a decade, China borrowed to build infrastructure. Is economy now at risk?

China’s economy has largely recovered from the impact of the coronavirus, but its debt surged in 2020, forcing Beijing to set the bar higher for infrastructure projects amid rising risks of defaults by local governments.

06 Aug, 2021
Infrastructure projects are still being built in major Chinese cities – like the second phase of the mass transit network Foshan city in Guangdong province costing 77.21 billion yuan (US$12 billion) – but Beijing is now setting the bar higher. Photo: Xinhua
[4]

‘I worry every day’: Chinese households grapple with mounting debt

Chinese households are borrowing to the hilt to invest in the country’s economic recovery, but growing debt is eating up disposal income that could otherwise be used to buy goods and services.

07 Aug, 2021
By the end of last year, China’s average household debt as a percentage of disposable income had reached a record high of 130.9 per cent. Photo: AFP
[5]

‘Our efforts are worthless’: not every part of China is spending again

The pandemic has inflamed economic disparities between provinces in the north and south of China, with data indicating the divergence is closely correlated to consumer spending.

10 Aug, 2021
China was the first major economy to bounce back from the pandemic, but the recovery has been uneven between regions. Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen
[6]

Fate of Evergrande shows ‘too big to fail’ may not apply amid debt crackdown

Analysts say the property developer’s financial and political troubles could signal ‘more tolerance for defaults’ as Beijing pushes ahead with its deleveraging campaign.

11 Aug, 2021
China Evergrande’s financial and political troubles could signal ‘more tolerance for defaults’ in Beijing. Photo: Reuters
[7]

Work less, spend less: has Covid-19 changed Chinese consumers?

‘Psychological’ scarring from the pandemic continues to undermine consumer confidence in China, with lingering anxiety about financial security tarnishing economic recovery.

12 Aug, 2021
China’s retail sales were strong in the first half of the year, but consumer confidence has not yet fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Photo: AFP