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China searches for safe havens amid US debt woes, dollar weaponisation

Risk of financial sanctions prompts Beijing to rethink where it parks its massive foreign exchange reserves

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Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen

Ever since the US dollar cemented its role as the backbone of the global financial system following the second world war, it has been a weapon of choice for American presidents waging economic warfare.

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But as the United States’ use of sanctions has proliferated in recent years, concerns have grown in China and elsewhere over whether the US dollar can remain a safe haven currency.

Now, following Donald Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s US presidential election, a fresh wave of uncertainties looms over the US dollar and US dollar-denominated assets.

“We’re still a safe haven – [offering] flight to safety in a messy dangerous world – and that’s a huge benefit,” former US treasury secretary Timothy Geithner told Bloomberg News in July.

He then cautioned that “people in policy have to understand: that position the dollar enjoys, there’s no entitlement to that. It’s not like a guarantee”.

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When the governments of the world’s most-advanced economies, led by the US, froze nearly half of the Bank of Russia’s foreign reserves following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it was a stark reminder to China that its foreign exchange reserves, the world’s largest, could also be affected by US sanctions.

The risk of a forced sale or freezing of related [US] assets also needs to be considered
Yang Siyao, Tsinghua University
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