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Shinzo Abe: Abenomics not seen as the answer for China’s economic woes with reform favoured over stimulus

  • Shinzo Abe’s three-pronged Abenomics approach has long been cited by Chinese policy advisers as a warning against unconventional policy loosening
  • Beijing has avoided all-out stimulus after efforts to avert the financial crisis in 2008 led to high local government debt, a rising household leverage ratio and a property bubble

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The three-pronged approach adopted by former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe has long been cited by Chinese policy advisers as a warning against unconventional policy loosening even before Friday’s assassination. Photo: Reuters

China should concentrate on structural reform to unleash long-term growth potential, rather than resorting to the monetary stimulus favoured by the Abenomics approach adopted by the late former Japanese prime minister, analysts said.

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Shinzo Abe’s three-pronged approach has long been cited by Chinese policy advisers as a warning against unconventional policy loosening even before Friday’s assassination, with the official Xinhua News Agency describing it as “ineffective, untrustworthy and a failure” in 2016.

Ultra-loose monetary policy, a flexible fiscal policy and structural reforms made up the core of the policy which was adopted in 2012 to “break down any and all walls looming ahead of the Japanese economy and map out a new trajectory for growth”, after two decades of deflation and stagnation.

It’s overall positive because it indeed pulled Japan out of the deflation mud, and injected some vigour. But it didn’t generate the desired results in structural adjustment
Zhou Xuezhi

“It’s overall positive because it indeed pulled Japan out of the deflation mud, and injected some vigour. But it didn’t generate the desired results in structural adjustment,” said Zhou Xuezhi, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Institute of World Economics and Politics.

“The expansionary monetary and fiscal policies generated limited effects in the long run. They just created conditions for structural reform, which is supposed to be the most important content,” added Zhou, who received his doctoral degree in Japan.

The review of Abe’s legacy now serves a chance for Beijing to examine its reform agenda, as the top leadership will be reshuffled later this year amid lingering calls for increased policy support to save the coronavirus-hit economy.
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Beijing has warned against all-out stimulus after its policy package to avert the financial crisis in 2008 led to high local government debt, a rising household leverage ratio and a property bubble.

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