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China food security: soybean imports ‘exceptionally large’ as pig population nears pre-African swine fever level

  • Soybean imports from the United States and Brazil were up 12.8 per cent, year on year, in the first five months of 2021
  • Rapid hog restocking and a post-coronavirus resurgence in the food-service industry are combining to dramatically push up demand for soybeans in China

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Rapid hog restocking following the African swine fever outbreak has been a driving factor behind China’s strong imports of soybeans in recent months. Photo: EPA-EFE

China’s soybean imports increased significantly in the first five months of the year, in line with a recovery in the domestic hog population, but domestic demand for the crop looks to be more modest in the coming months amid rising commodity prices.

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China bought a total of 38.23 million tonnes of soybeans from January to May. The world’s largest soybean importer spent US$19.35 billion on the crop, up 44.2 per cent from the same period last year, according to Chinese customs data last week.

Its biggest suppliers were the United States and Brazil, and soybean imports from those countries during the five-month stretch were up 12.8 per cent, year on year.

“China has been an exceptionally large buyer of US supplies [since October 1],” said Darren Cooper, a senior economist at Britain-based research firm International Grains Council, referring to the start of the US government’s fiscal year. “Currently, demand is almost entirely focused on South American supplies, and while purchases from Brazil have been significant, these are expected to show a more modest year-on-year increase through to September.”

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Beijing’s pledge to buy US$36.5 billion worth of farm goods last year under the phase-one trade deal signed with Washington in January 2020 has supported US soybean imports. But the recovery of China’s hog herd, which was devastated by African swine fever, has been the key driver of its surging appetite for soybeans, which are used in animal feed for the massive livestock sector, as well as in cooking oil.
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