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China population: census results will spur debate on key policy issues

  • Economist warns that ‘China’s population crisis is approaching’, with ‘increasingly severe’ economic and social problems
  • Data could prompt a rethink or revision of China’s decades-old retirement ages and make it easier for rural migrant workers to establish residency in urban areas

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The once-a-decade census, gauging changes in the size and diversity of China’s population, is an essential tool for future government policies. Illustration: Adolfo Arranz

This is the first in a series of stories about China’s once-a-decade census conducted in 2020. The world’s most populous nation will release the national demographic data on Tuesday, and the figures will have far-reaching social policy and economic implications.

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This story was originally published on April 28, 2021, but it has been republished and updated after the National Bureau of Statistics announced the release date. 

Data from China’s latest nationwide census is expected to show a critical downward shift in the nation’s population trajectory, analysts said, making decisive reforms in population planning an urgent task for policymakers.

The census results will show China’s population continued to grow over the last decade, the National Bureau of Statistics announced last week, refuting a news report that it would show an outright decline.  

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Workers unhappy about China’s plan to change decades-old retirement age rules

Workers unhappy about China’s plan to change decades-old retirement age rules

However, demographers say the start of China’s population decline is likely to begin in the next few years. 

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The once-a-decade census, gauging changes in the size and diversity of China’s population, is an essential tool for future government policies. Beijing is currently in the process of implementing its new five-year plan that will set economic and social targets for the 2021-25 period, and census data will play a big part in the upcoming policy debate.
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