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Opinion | Power imbalance in China-Iran relations on full display during Raisi’s Beijing trip
- Sanctioned and isolated, Tehran has less to offer Beijing than Moscow, which can at least boast a powerful military and global presence
- Within Iran, there is also wariness of Chinese investment, and not even shared concerns about Afghanistan have helped to spur cooperation
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There is a third leg in the alliance of powers against which the West is facing off that has always seemed a little wobblier than the other two. The China-Russia relationship is as tight as ever, and the Russia-Iran link is only hardening as Tehran steps up its military support to Moscow.
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The China-Iran link, however, seems more troubled. Last week’s visit by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Beijing has been sold as an opportunity to bolster cooperation, but even with a high-profile boost, it is unlikely to come anywhere close to the strength of the other two.
China needs Iran even less than it needs Russia. Moscow is, in fact, an important partner for Beijing. Putting to one side the complicated and often contradictory economic relationship, which is clearly shifting ever more firmly in China’s favour, Russia is a United Nations Security Council member and a nuclear power whose army is able to increasingly command global presence.
It may have made a major strategic blunder in its invasion of Ukraine, but it remains a significant player on the world stage and serves an important role for Beijing.
In contrast, Iran is a heavily sanctioned and isolated power that produces little that Beijing immediately needs. Its rich hydrocarbon supplies are of interest to China, as is its large consumer population and open market for outside infrastructure investors. But these are all things that China can also find elsewhere.
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Iran does not sit at the heart of any international structures that are useful to China’s efforts to blunt the growing push by the West to isolate Beijing on the world stage. In fact, Iran is desperately keen to join Chinese structures – like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – to demonstrate that it still has important allies.
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