Lanxin Xiang

Opinion | Ukraine war stalemate makes ceasefire the only realistic option

While Russia has proved it has the capacity to keep fighting, Ukraine must depend on support from its Western allies that is ultimately unsustainable

When economic sanctions don’t work and military operations go nowhere, a ceasefire must be considered

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South Korean soldiers stand guard as they face North Korea’s Panmon Hall at the truce village of Panmunjom in the demilitarised zone separating North and South Korea on May 9. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine grinding to a standstill, advocates for a ceasefire are looking to Korea, Kashmir and Cyprus for ideas on how to sustain a halt to hostilities. Photo: AFP

Lanxin Xiang

Published: 5:30am, 28 Oct 2023Updated: 9:44am, 29 Oct 2023

Corrected [9:38am, 29 Oct, 2023]

[9:38am, 29 Oct, 2023]
The Line of Control referred to in the article relates to the dispute between India and Pakistan in Kashmir, rather than the India-China border dispute, as an earlier version of the article said. The error was introduced during the editing process.

With the election of a staunch MAGA Republican to take the gavel of the House of Representatives in Washington, the end game of Ukraine counteroffensive might have come. House Speaker Mike Johnson is against continued aid to Ukraine, and the Republican-controlled House could simply kill US President Joe Biden’s demand for aid both to Israel and Ukraine.

The Western alliance’s military aid is the only lifeline for Ukrainian efforts to continue the war. If the United States drops out, it is hardly conceivable that Europe can fill the gap or is even willing to do so. Economies across Europe have struggled mightily in recent years, even those in leading countries such as Germany.

By contrast, Russia’s economy has not experienced a fatal wound despite the comprehensive sanctions regime enacted against it. The Russian economy is projected to grow 2.5 per cent this year, a pace that would put it well ahead of Germany.

If economic sanctions do not work and military operations go nowhere, the only possible option is ceasefire.

The US and China had the same experience during the Korean war. This is the gist of the 12-point Chinese peace proposal. When the proposal was floated in February, the Western reaction was not a welcoming one.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan dismissed the entirety of the proposal, saying the plan should have ended after the first point, which calls for “respecting the sovereignty of all countries”. However, this does not deal with the Ukraine conundrum in reality. Despite the massive loss of life on both sides of the war, the Nato countries have so far failed to provide any alternative peace plans.

Opinion | Ukraine war stalemate makes ceasefire the only realistic option

While Russia has proved it has the capacity to keep fighting, Ukraine must depend on support from its Western allies that is ultimately unsustainable When economic sanctions don’t work and military operations go nowhere, a ceasefire must be considered

While Russia has proved it has the capacity to keep fighting, Ukraine must depend on support from its Western allies that is ultimately unsustainable

When economic sanctions don’t work and military operations go nowhere, a ceasefire must be considered