Raffaello Pantucci

Opinion | China-Russia relations are strong enough to withstand the occasional spat

The Chinese embassy’s protest against the treatment of a Chinese influencer at the Russian border is not a sign of a crack in relations. Neither is China’s participation at the Saudi-sponsored peace summit on Ukraine

Beijing’s and Moscow’s shared interests in geopolitics outweigh any minor disagreements

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Raffaello Pantucci

Published: 1:00am, 10 Aug 2023Updated: 1:54am, 10 Aug 2023

A spat over a viral video of a group of Chinese citizens being detained at the Russian border has escalated into a rebuke of Moscow by Beijing. Coming at around the same time that China chose to attend a Saudi-sponsored and Western-backed peace summit on the Ukraine war, it has been interpreted in some quarters as a shift by China away from Russia.

This is manifestly not the case, and again reflects a failure to properly analyse the Sino-Russian relationship. Such misunderstanding is the foundation of bad policy choices. There is no doubt Beijing and Moscow have disagreements, but what international partnership doesn’t?

In part, the problem in this case lies in the medium. The fact that the story about a group of Chinese being detained trying to cross the border from Kazakhstan into Russia was captured on video, included a prominent video blogger, and was widely shared on Chinese social media, suggests some level of tacit approval by government censors.

The fact that the Chinese embassy in Moscow chose to weigh in as well only adds to this sentiment. Consequently, the conclusion is that President Xi Jinping must have a view on this matter, which equates to a rebuke of Russia.

This interpretation fails in a number of ways. First, it assumes a level of conformity in the Chinese system which does not exist. There is no doubt that there is only one decider within Beijing, but underneath him there is a warren of institutions with their own motivations and internal pressures.

This does not mean they will contradict the centre (though sometimes they seem to), but there have also been moments when internal directives or goals have come into conflict.