Dani Rodrik,Reza BaqirandIshac Diwan

Opinion | As the global debt crisis widens, relief must be restructured to unlock growth

With many countries urgently needing debt relief to ward off economic collapse, the elements of grand deals need updating to new global realities

International financial institutions must shift focus from an overemphasis on macroeconomic targets to socially acceptable policies that support green growth

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A woman shouts anti-government slogans during a protest in Buenos Aires, Argentina, against the government’s agreement with the International Monetary Fund to refinance some US$45 billion in debt, on March 10, 2022. Photo: AP

Dani Rodrik,Reza BaqirandIshac Diwan

Published: 1:30am, 13 Jan 2023Updated: 2:27am, 13 Jan 2023

This year may prove devastating for the developing world, as more countries find themselves engulfed in debt crises. Several are already in default, and scores of others urgently need debt relief to ward off economic collapse and sharp rises in poverty.

The prevailing response to debt crises is to negotiate complex packages involving the debtor country, international financial institutions (IFIs), and other external creditors. Domestic bondholders, labour unions and others play a part too.

The bargaining process can be lengthy and feature significant domestic and global efforts to game the outcome by pushing a larger burden of losses onto others, even as debtor-country conditions deteriorate.

The rise of emerging markets as major bilateral official creditors has added complexity to an already difficult process. China, India, countries in the Middle East, and others have not been part of conventional debt-resolution arrangements.

The key to making debt deals more compelling to all is to design them in a way that unlocks growth opportunities. The prospect of large-enough gains would attract all parties to the negotiating table.