Asia's catch-up with the West runs into a growth bottleneck
Dan Steinbock says the real test of the so-called Asian Century will be whether living standards in the region's emerging economies can continue to improve, whatever the GDP numbers
If the 19th century was dominated by the British empire and the 20th century by the US, the "Asian Century" - the shift of global growth momentum from the transatlantic axis to the East - is said to reign now.
Some observers believe in this "irresistible shift of global power to the East", as one puts it. Others expect the shift only if certain strong economic, demographic and trade trends prevail.
In a 2011 report, the Asian Development Bank concluded that an additional 3 billion Asians could enjoy living standards similar to those in Europe today, and the region could account for over half of global output by 2050.
When the ADB released its report, emerging Asia had grown some four to six times faster than the European Union for half a decade - yet per capita income in the large emerging Asian economies was only a fraction of Europe's. This trend is expected to continue until 2020.
Moreover, easy catch-up growth is fading. As the Asia-Pacific region continues to experience slower-than-anticipated gross domestic product growth, analysts have been nudging down forecasts for much of the region.
The US-led boost can no longer fuel growth in Asia. Rather, the US Federal Reserve's impending rate hikes could destabilise growth drivers in the region.
In Europe and Japan, diminished growth prospects are the new reality. In China, growth deceleration is the new normal, even though the transition to consumption will involve new opportunities.
