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Dan Steinbock
Dr Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognised expert of the multipolar world. He focuses on international business, international relations, investment and risk among the major advanced economies and large emerging economies; as well as multipolar market trends. His commentaries are published across all world regions. For more, see www.differencegroup.net
Policy failures in the past decade have brought plunging trade and investment, slowing migration and an explosion of global displacement. The longer stagnation prevails, the greater the chances of cold wars turning into hot wars.
International critiques of Rodrigo Duterte’s authoritarianism and war on drugs are in stark contrast to the trust he enjoys at home. The People Power movement, of which the Liberal Party has portrayed itself as the institutional embodiment, has failed most Filipinos. Antagonistic relations with China will not help.
Global growth is unlikely to recover soon, given not only the US-China trade war but also geopolitical tensions. Around the world, the number of forcibly displaced people has hit a record high.
Compared to pre-2008 crisis levels, world economic growth has already plummeted by half and is at risk of a long-term, hard-to-reverse stagnation. Returning to global integration and multilateral reconciliation could dramatically change the scenario.
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Tokyo plans to proceed with a sales tax increase in October, despite signs of economic weakness and signals of an end to monetary easing. But, instead of penalising the middle class, it should be solving Japan’s structural problems.
Dan Steinbock says the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement could become a template for major trade deals the Trump administration wants to execute around the world, but it will not be an easy sell.
The end of US participation in the Iran nuclear deal seals the conclusion of American interest in upholding a multipolar world order, but it was achieved thanks to a loophole Obama left behind.
Transparency International’s annual measure of corruption is flawed because it only measures public sector corruption and is biased towards advanced economies’ interests.
China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is in fact no higher than those of major countries that enjoy a higher credit rating. And, unlike these other economies, China can look forward to years of solid growth
Hong Kong must deepen integration with mainland China to survive the erosion of its maturing economy
Japan's fiscal discipline is worsening. In the coming years, the consequences will be felt in Japan, the region and worldwide. In the past quarter, the economy fell into recession.
Hong Kong's lingering turmoil suggests that its economic future is not assured. Recently, the People's Daily accused Washington of colluding with Occupy Central protest organisers to try and foment a "colour revolution".
