China’s biggest banks lower deposit rates for third time in 2023 with eye on improving profitability
- Lower deposit rates should help alleviate pressures on banks’ margins and lay the groundwork for the People’s Bank of China to cut its policy lending rates in January, Nomura analysts say
- The average NIM could drop 17 basis points year on year in 2023, and will be around ‘a sustainable level’ of 1.7 per cent in 2024: S&P
“Lower deposit rates should help alleviate pressures on banks’ NIMs and lay the groundwork for the PBOC [People’s Bank of China] to cut its policy lending rates [Open market operation and medium-term lending facility] in January, which have been left unchanged for the past four months,” said analysts at Japanese investment bank Nomura.
“If these cuts materialise, it would signal Beijing has become increasingly concerned about the downward pressure on growth, lending support to our view of another growth dip. The lasting disinflationary pressures and a sharp reversal of US rates have lowered the hurdle for the PBOC to cut rates.”
After Friday’s adjustments, the banks will pay an annual interest of 1.45 per cent on one-year time deposits, down from 1.55 per cent. The rates for two year, three year and five-year products are now 1.65, 1.95 and 2 per cent, respectively, down from 1.85, 2.2 and 2.25 per cent.