Clara Cheong is a Singapore-based global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. Part of the Global Market Insights Strategy team, she is responsible for formulating and communicating the market outlook and investment views in the Asia region. She has more than 10 years of experience in global asset allocation, investment strategy and portfolio management. Prior to joining the Market Insights Strategy team, Clara was a multi-asset portfolio manager on the J.P. Morgan Wealth Management Chief Investment Office team based in New York, focusing on strategic and tactical asset allocation, cross-asset trade idea generation, portfolio construction and multi-asset risk modeling. She obtained a double degree in Bachelors of Science in Economics and Bachelors in Business Administration (Finance) from Singapore Management...
While the global outlook is downbeat, a turnaround in US real income growth, China’s rapid reopening and a release of pent-up consumer demand in Asia could offset slowdowns elsewhere.
Most third-quarter US earnings reports outdid expectations but serious headwinds are ahead given the strong dollar, China’s Covid-19 policy and Europe’s situation. Investor concern over inflation and higher interest rates will also put pressure on company valuations and stock prices.
Asian and G10 currencies are likely to continue to weaken against a strong dollar as the Fed stays hawkish on inflation. But fundamentals are solid in Asia and real interest rates in most economies remain above those in the US, which will support local currencies.
After being hit hard by the Fed’s inflation fighting policy, US growth stocks enjoyed a strong run in August, giving investors hope of a possible dovish pivot. In reality, such hopes are premature – inflation is still uncomfortably high, and the Fed won’t ease up until it is brought under control.
The latest meeting suggests no doves are left as the Fed signals an accelerated path of rate increases to fight a hot summer of inflation. But, with a cooling housing market and strong dollar among factors set to slow growth, an overly hawkish Fed could slow demand and even spark a recession.
Even as the conflict in Ukraine continues and weighs on global markets, there are signs US inflation has peaked or will soon peak. Energy and food inflation are high but there is good reason to believe the worst is over.