Doubts about the US government’s ability to manage its debt without stoking inflation are sparking the latest round of dire warnings about the risks to the global economy.

Rather than hugging a broad index or betting on a certain country, investors must be discerning and focus on themes and trends in each country.

Great reforms seem to be born only out of major upheavals. And the IMF enjoys only as much power as its fractious owners are prepared to give it.

The yuan is under strain from internal and external pressures, making the balancing act that China’s monetary policymakers are trying to manage even trickier.

Political shocks during this year’s plethora of elections have roiled markets, but no source of political risk is greater than Donald Trump.

No state can withdraw from globalisation on its own terms, and the world cannot have one power in effect running monetary policy on behalf of everyone else.

With policy continuity likely, strong fundamentals intact and pressure on the government to create jobs, investors’ optimism looks justified.

It is easy to be pessimistic about the world and the global economy, yet stock markets have hit record highs. Borrowing costs are coming down, growth is stronger than expected, tech stocks are thriving and investors are taking a glass-half-full approach.

Asia needs to stop seeing older people as liabilities to be tolerated, and instead view them as assets to be nurtured, through better human resource management.

Despite lingering memories of the chaos and protectionism of Trump’s presidency, financial markets show little concern about him possibly returning to office. Investors who downplay the risks of Trump’s re-election ignore the threat he poses to democracy, the global trading system and the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Many investors believe the current rally in Chinese stocks is built on shaky foundations, but there are reasons to think this surge could last. Data beating expectations indicates a stabilising economy, markets seem convinced by Beijing’s policy moves and the rally not disconnected from domestic fundamentals.

It is starting to look as if the changes in global economic ties will lead not to a hot war but a new ice age where US- and China-aligned blocs coexist in an environment of slow growth and tension

The prospect of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates and a ‘stronger for longer’ US dollar has hit Asian markets particularly hard, with Japan an extreme example. The only way the dollar will fall meaningfully is if the US economy slows sharply and the Fed cuts rates sooner and at a faster pace than markets expect.

If wisdom has a place at all, it should be within above-the-fray institutions such as the IMF and World Bank. Yet there is often scant sign of it.

The IMF is warning regulators about the systemic risks of the rapidly growing private credit market, a largely opaque sector involving direct lending to corporations

While China’s downturn tops the list of risks in developing economies, less attention is paid to the difficulties in sustaining India’s boom. Yet India’s weaknesses, such as a low labour participation rate, a lack of jobs and a large fiscal deficit, should not be overlooked.

In a matter of three months, amid strong US economic data and all-time S&P 500 highs, the outlook for interest rates has changed considerably. The Fed may want to see inflation quashed without triggering a recession, but the more likely scenario is rates will come down only if the economy slows sharply.

Markets and banking systems are stumbling on blindly and greedily towards a repeat of past mistakes both recent and distant. Banks being so big they can lend irresponsibly and ignore those meant to regulate them must change, and the coming crisis could do just that.

Investors banking on Chinese policymakers providing aggressive stimulus are trapped in an old view of China and its economy. The news is far from all doom and gloom, but investors need to accept that China’s economy will remain vulnerable and recovery will take time.

Japan’s central bank ending its negative interest rate regime comes not a moment too soon, but that alone will not return the economy to its heyday. Uncertainty over the outlook for growth and inflation persists, and the internal issues that led to the adoption of ultra-loose policy are still in place.

The apparent inability of markets to see more than one step ahead is alarming at a time when stocks are surging and markets chase quick profits above all. Multiple underlying problems are being overlooked, and a market failure to comprehend the fundamental causes of rising costs could spell financial disaster.

Bitcoin has staged a comeback from a difficult 2022, with its price rising higher than US$73,000 on the back of support from US regulators. The approval of spot bitcoin ETFs is driving interest but also raising fears of the cryptocurrency losing its status as an unregulated, decentralised product.

China’s growing dominance in solar panels, electric cars and batteries is putting US and European manufacturers at a disadvantage and is attracting defensive hostility.

Li Qiang admitting Beijing will have a hard time delivering on its pledge of 5 per cent GDP growth is a wild understatement given China’s economic struggles. The government’s policy response has been piecemeal, equivocal and confusing, frustrating investors and sapping confidence among domestic consumers.

Investors around the world have been dazzled by the performance of the “Magnificent Seven” US tech stocks and, to a lesser degree, Europe’s “Granolas”. The size and influence of these giants are taking investment away from essential socioeconomic causes such as climate change, infrastructure and more.

Just months after investors were convinced interest rates would come down sharply this year, expectations have been significantly reduced. The experience of Australia and New Zealand shows that when inflation remains sticky and employment holds up, there is little room for central bankers to consider rate cuts.

The mountain of global debt is of particular concern because of the sharp series of interest rate increases in the US. The threat that debt levels in different sectors of the economy pose to financial markets should be more clearly communicated.

The Magnificent Seven’s dominance of US stocks and its outsize impact on the performance of global equity markets has amplified fears of a new tech bubble. These fears ignore that the grouping is built on sound fundamentals and is driving structural mega trends rather than being a threat to financial stability.