TOPIC

Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
last updated:
9 September, 2024
An employee checks the shelves at a supermarket in Gaomi, in eastern Shandong province, on December 16. Photo: Xinhua
China economy

Macroscope | Never mind stimulus, rebalancing is China’s real economic challenge

The problem is not China’s leaders lacking the will to enact large-scale stimulus but whether it will work given the present challenges.

videocam
US-China relations

Macroscope | As liberal international order crumbles, war could be on the cards

videocam
15
China economy

Macroscope | Fears of China’s ‘Japanification’ are overblown

videocam
United States

Macroscope | China won’t be the only Asian economy in Trump’s sights

Expect trade tensions to intensify dramatically at a time when many Asian economies, including China, are relying on exports to boost growth.

videocam
US president Donald Trump (right) holds a tariff table as he speaks in the Cabinet Room of the White House on January 24, 2019. Photo: AFP
Hong Kong housing

The View | Can Hong Kong’s property market weather the Trump shock?

Hong Kong’s real estate industry cannot seem to catch a break, though the outlook is not all doom and gloom if you know where to look.

videocam
United States

Macroscope | Trump’s tariff weapon may amount to little in a changed world

US-China decoupling and trade diversification across the Asia-Pacific mean Trump’s tariffs are no longer capable of mass destruction.

videocam
Advertisement
Advertisement
United States

Macroscope | Trumponomics 2.0 is fraught with danger

Investors are downplaying the impact of the protectionist and populist thrust of Trump 2.0 and have not even begun to price in the risks.

videocam
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the morning trading on November 7. The Dow Jones Index closed up more than 1,500 points following former US president Donald Trump’s win in the 2024 presidential election, the market’s biggest jump in two years. Photo: AFP
China’s economic stimulus

China unveils debt-relief plan, keeps further stimulus salvo in reserve arsenal

Week-long NPC Standing Committee meeting ends with mostly forward-looking plans to right China’s economic ship.

videocam
6
Japan

Macroscope | Japan’s election results could have global ramifications

Tokyo’s power vacuum, and questions over Japan’s policies and its relationship with the US under Harris or Trump, could have deeper economic impacts.

videocam
US presidential election 2024

Macroscope | Harris? Trump? Whoever wins, US will be a mess after Election Day

The messier the outcome and the more protracted the dispute over who won, the bigger the threat to the US economy and global markets.

videocam
People watch the ABC News presidential debate between Democratic presidential nominee, US Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republican presidential nominee, former US president Donald Trump, at a watch party in West Hollywood, California, on September 10. Photo: Getty Images/TNS
Brics

Macroscope | Brics summit vs IMF-World Bank meetings: the global divide is clear

The West and its institutions are deluded if they think ignoring the Global South’s demands and preserving the status quo will work.

videocam
(From front left) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a meeting during the 15th Brics Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, on August 24, 2023. This year’s Brics summit will be the first since the grouping welcomed four new members. Photo: EPA-EFE
China economy

Macroscope | Are markets misreading China’s economic priorities?

While Chinese policymakers need to bolster confidence in stimulus efforts, investors must come to terms with updated government priorities.

videocam
Stocks

Macroscope | Why investors should be fearful when China bulls are greedy

While there are reasons for optimism with the news coming out of the Fed and Beijing, the case for caution is much stronger.

videocam
China economy

Macroscope | Why ‘bazooka’ stimulus alone won’t fix what ails China’s economy

Markets aside, the economy faces structural challenges. Beijing favours an unbalanced growth mix that makes it harder to boost demand.

videocam
Shoppers on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai on October 2. While the stimulus measures announced by the government have lifted market sentiment, there is scepticism about whether they will translate to the real economy. Photographer: Bloomberg
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Can central banks really prevent a repeat of the Great Depression?

As we wrestle with challenges similar to those before the 1920s slump, let’s not rely on central bankers to save us from economic calamity.

US dollar and Chinese yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration taken on January 30, 2023. Photo: Reuters
China economy

Macroscope | Why Germany’s economic issues run just as deep as China’s

Beijing and Berlin need to restore confidence in their economies, but political and ideological resistance to rises in public spending runs deep.

videocam
US-China trade war

Macroscope | West should thank China for kick-starting its economic growth

Instead of being grateful, the US and Europe are lashing out at China while simultaneously adopting aspects of Chinese state capitalism.

videocam
9
Advertisement
Advertisement
US presidential election 2024

Macroscope | Investors still revel in blissful ignorance of US political risks

Surging stock markets show investors pay no heed to the dangerous dysfunction in US politics, but ratings agencies are ahead of the curve.

videocam
Republican presidential nominee and former US president Donald Trump arrives to speak at a campaign event at Nassau Coliseum in Uniondale, New York, on September 18. Photo: AP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Bond boom a sign of reality catching up with bubbly stock markets

The recent skittishness of equities is undermining global investors’ confidence and driving them to seek safety in bonds.

videocam
4
China economy

Macroscope | China’s economy isn’t becoming Japanified, at least not yet

Despite fears China has entered have entered a ‘balance sheet recession’, the country has more tools than Japan to reflate its economy.

videocam
6
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Gold is still the safe haven of choice in Asia and beyond

The gold price coming adrift from traditional anchors points to deep uncertainty about the world and concern for the global monetary system.

videocam
5
A worker handles ABC Bullion 1kg gold bars at the ABC Refinery smelter in Sydney, Australia. The price of the precious metal has surged to a record US$2,500 for a single ounce in recent weeks. Photo: Bloomberg
Banking & finance

Macroscope | 4 reasons it’s too early to declare victory over inflation

Central banks might have kept interest rates too high for too long. Cutting them too quickly could prove even more costly.

videocam
A construction worker climbs to the second story of a house under construction in a new development in Brambleton, Virginia, on August 14. US consumer inflation eased slightly in July, according to US Labour Department data, its smallest 12-month increase since March 2021 and a positive sign for the Federal Reserve as it weighs cutting interest rates. Photo: AFP
United States

Macroscope | Why risk of US recession, not China downturn, is real cause for concern

The Federal Reserve’s priority must be to ensure fears of a deeper downturn do not become self-fulfilling, especially given what the US election could unleash.

videocam
United States

US Fed chair says ‘the time has come’ to start cutting interest rates

The Fed’s benchmark lending rate currently sits at a 23-year high of between 5.25 and 5.50 per cent, cooling demand in the world’s largest economy ahead of November’s presidential elections.

US presidential election 2024

Macroscope | Kamala Harris’ economic plan is bad – Trump would be worse

While her economic policies are not the answer, she would not damage US democracy, undermine Federal Reserve independence and sow chaos.

videocam
8
US Vice-President Kamala Harris outlines her economic plan in a speech in Raleigh, North Carolina, on August 16. Photo: EPA-EFE
Jobs

Macroscope | Why World Bank action on looming jobs crisis points to a better way

At a time when some are intent on promoting division, maybe our only hope for progress is forward-looking institutions like the World Bank.

videocam
People visit a job fair in in Shanghai on May 31. An estimated 1.2 billion young people in the Global South will become working-age adults in the next 10 years, yet there will not be nearly enough jobs for them without bold and urgent reforms. Photo: AFP
China economy

Macroscope | China’s overheated government bond market is the least of its worries

Concerns about the sovereign debt market shouldn’t be related to threats to financial stability but the risk of a more severe economic downturn.

videocam
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Japan’s stock shock signals the return of volatility – and fear

Markets are beginning to reflect and respond to a fast-growing sense of uncertainty and insecurity in the wider world.

videocam
Advertisement
Advertisement
Help preserve 120 years of quality journalism.
SUPPORT NOW
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement