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Macroscope

Donald Trump is reflected in the bullet-proof glass as he finishes speaking at a campaign rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania, on November 3. Photo: AP

Macroscope | Trump’s tariff weapon may amount to little in a changed world

US-China decoupling and trade diversification across the Asia-Pacific mean Trump’s tariffs are no longer capable of mass destruction.

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Macroscope | Trumponomics 2.0 is fraught with danger

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China unveils debt-relief plan, keeps further stimulus salvo in reserve arsenal

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Macroscope | Japan’s election results could have global ramifications

Tokyo’s power vacuum, and questions over Japan’s policies and its relationship with the US under Harris or Trump, could have deeper economic impacts.

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Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at a media interview at the headquarters of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party in Tokyo on October 27. Photo: Kyodo

Macroscope | Harris? Trump? Whoever wins, US will be a mess after Election Day

The messier the outcome and the more protracted the dispute over who won, the bigger the threat to the US economy and global markets.

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Macroscope | Brics summit vs IMF-World Bank meetings: the global divide is clear

The West and its institutions are deluded if they think ignoring the Global South’s demands and preserving the status quo will work.

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Macroscope | Are markets misreading China’s economic priorities?

While Chinese policymakers need to bolster confidence in stimulus efforts, investors must come to terms with updated government priorities.

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A customer sits outside a restaurant in Beijing on October 11. Financial markets have no stomach for delay and conflicting policy signals. Photo: Bloomberg

Macroscope | Why investors should be fearful when China bulls are greedy

While there are reasons for optimism with the news coming out of the Fed and Beijing, the case for caution is much stronger.

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Macroscope | Why ‘bazooka’ stimulus alone won’t fix what ails China’s economy

Markets aside, the economy faces structural challenges. Beijing favours an unbalanced growth mix that makes it harder to boost demand.

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Macroscope | Can central banks really prevent a repeat of the Great Depression?

As we wrestle with challenges similar to those before the 1920s slump, let’s not rely on central bankers to save us from economic calamity.

US dollar and Chinese yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration taken on January 30, 2023. Photo: Reuters

Macroscope | Why Germany’s economic issues run just as deep as China’s

Beijing and Berlin need to restore confidence in their economies, but political and ideological resistance to rises in public spending runs deep.

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Shoppers browse at a street market in Alexanderplatz in Berlin on September 25. Germany’s business outlook has worsened again, reinforcing fears that Europe’s biggest economy is in recession with no quick rebound in sight. Photo: Bloomberg

Macroscope | West should thank China for kick-starting its economic growth

Instead of being grateful, the US and Europe are lashing out at China while simultaneously adopting aspects of Chinese state capitalism.

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Macroscope | Investors still revel in blissful ignorance of US political risks

Surging stock markets show investors pay no heed to the dangerous dysfunction in US politics, but ratings agencies are ahead of the curve.

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Macroscope | Bond boom a sign of reality catching up with bubbly stock markets

The recent skittishness of equities is undermining global investors’ confidence and driving them to seek safety in bonds.

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Visitors take photos in front of the Cloud Gate sculpture, known as the Bean, at Millennium Park in Chicago on August 15. The city of Chicago is delaying its US$643 million bond sale that was expected to price last week amid volatility in the US$4 trillion market for state and local bonds. Photo: Bloomberg

Macroscope | China’s economy isn’t becoming Japanified, at least not yet

Despite fears China has entered have entered a ‘balance sheet recession’, the country has more tools than Japan to reflate its economy.

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A vendor tends to produce at a fresh food market in Shanghai, China, on August 7, 2023. Photo: Bloomberg

Macroscope | Gold is still the safe haven of choice in Asia and beyond

The gold price coming adrift from traditional anchors points to deep uncertainty about the world and concern for the global monetary system.

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Macroscope | 4 reasons it’s too early to declare victory over inflation

Central banks might have kept interest rates too high for too long. Cutting them too quickly could prove even more costly.

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Macroscope | Why risk of US recession, not China downturn, is real cause for concern

The Federal Reserve’s priority must be to ensure fears of a deeper downturn do not become self-fulfilling, especially given what the US election could unleash.

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A cyclist rides past a “Now Hiring” sign posted on a business storefront in San Gabriel, California, on August 21. US figures for the 12 months ending in March showed there were 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported in the largest downward revision since 2009. Photo: AFP

US Fed chair says ‘the time has come’ to start cutting interest rates

The Fed’s benchmark lending rate currently sits at a 23-year high of between 5.25 and 5.50 per cent, cooling demand in the world’s largest economy ahead of November’s presidential elections.

Macroscope | Kamala Harris’ economic plan is bad – Trump would be worse

While her economic policies are not the answer, she would not damage US democracy, undermine Federal Reserve independence and sow chaos.

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Macroscope | Why World Bank action on looming jobs crisis points to a better way

At a time when some are intent on promoting division, maybe our only hope for progress is forward-looking institutions like the World Bank.

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People visit a job fair in in Shanghai on May 31. An estimated 1.2 billion young people in the Global South will become working-age adults in the next 10 years, yet there will not be nearly enough jobs for them without bold and urgent reforms. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | China’s overheated government bond market is the least of its worries

Concerns about the sovereign debt market shouldn’t be related to threats to financial stability but the risk of a more severe economic downturn.

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Unfinished residential buildings developed by China Evergrande Group in the outskirts of Shijiazhuang, Hebei province, on February 1. Persistent crises in the property sector and weak consumer demand are challenging China’s policymakers. Photo: Reuters

Macroscope | Japan’s stock shock signals the return of volatility – and fear

Markets are beginning to reflect and respond to a fast-growing sense of uncertainty and insecurity in the wider world.

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Macroscope | Never mind Japan – US is biggest source of global market volatility

The US is not the only source of volatility in the global economy, but the size of its economy and capital markets make it the most worrying.

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Macroscope | The great stock market reset is on its way

The coming stock shakeout will force the realisation that savings are being directed into areas of fleeting gain rather than at real need.

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on January 29. Markets are swinging but the unmistakable trend is downwards. Photo: Reuters

Macroscope | Second Trump presidency would pose little threat to King Dollar

While Donald Trump returning as president poses political risks, the US dollar is more insulated against his policies than many might think.

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Former US president and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at the New Holland Arena in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, on July 31. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | China’s uneven recovery risks more US protectionism, even if Trump loses

China’s trade surplus and deflationary policies propping up its push for hi-tech manufacturing mean a sharp US response is likely, whoever wins the November election.

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Macroscope | Why do investors refuse to take threat of second Trump term seriously?

While investors appear sure of a Trump victory, they have yet to come to terms with the far-reaching consequences of Trump’s re-election.

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Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
last updated:
9 September, 2024
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