The sharp economic aftershocks Hong Kong is experiencing as a result of the Sars crisis are unprecedented in a major international city in peacetime. Even the September 11 terrorist attack on New York City proved to be a one-off event. Each day that passed without incident was another reason for routines and lives to return to normal.
'[Sars] affects the minute details of daily life,' observed Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce chief executive Eden Woon Yi-teng. 'With terrorism, people took a few actions here and there but didn't change their [overall] behaviour patterns as drastically.'
But as dramatic as the images in Hong Kong have been - empty shopping malls, transportation hubs, restaurants and hotels - they also exaggerate the severity of the situation.
So too do huge 'Sars bills' concocted by various observers and 'totalling' hundreds of billions of dollars. These are predicated primarily on temporarily depressed real estate and stock market valuations that - unlike real business transactions lost because of cancelled dinner reservations, tourist trips, hotel bookings and factory orders - will be made back after the inevitable recovery.
A more sober reckoning suggests damage upwards of HK$40 billion, which would be borne primarily by tourism, including airlines and hotels, and retailing. This entails, however, two key assumptions: a relatively short crisis of three months or less and a limited impact on the Pearl River Delta's manufacturing sector and the resulting through-trade for Hong Kong.
None of this is meant to soft-peddle the consequences of a serious crisis but rather to put them in their proper perspective, free of the hype and scare-mongering that has led to ludicrous extremes. Perhaps the worst thing about Sars is that it has made a bad situation worse. Hong Kong's economy was in trouble prior to the crisis, and Sars will further delay its recovery.
