Will ties between Japan and South Korea worsen if Yoon Suk-yeol is ousted?

Japan is concerned that South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung might take over Yoon given his stance against Tokyo, analysts say

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South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ahead of their meeting on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Lima last month. Photo: dpa

Published: 8:00am, 12 Dec 2024

The potential ousting of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol threatens to undo recent progress in ties between Tokyo and Seoul, as analysts say the Japanese government is bracing for a policy shift under a prospective successor critical of Japan’s regional role and the two countries’ trilateral security alliance with the US.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was scheduled to travel to South Korea for talks with Yoon in January to discuss issues including joint security. Tokyo and Seoul have forged closer ties and clashed less frequently over Japan’s colonial rule in the Korean peninsula since Yoon came to power in May 2022.

Due to the uncertainties surrounding Yoon’s presidency following his failed martial law bid, Ishiba’s trip is officially on hold, and it remains to be seen whether their meeting might still happen.

On Sunday, Ishiba told reporters at the headquarters of the Liberal Democratic Party: “I want to monitor the situation with special and serious interest.”

South Korea is “an important neighbour, and my stance to try to have close cooperative ties from now on has not changed”, he added.

South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung speaking after the passing of a resolution urging President Yoon Suk-yeol to withdraw martial law in Seoul on December 4. Photo: EPA-EFE

Media outlets have raised the possibility of Yoon being replaced by Lee Jae-myung, leader of the left-leaning Democratic Party of Korea. Such an outcome could hurt relations between the two East Asian neighbours and their trilateral security alliance with the US, which has strengthened in recent years as a counterweight against China’s regional influence, analysts say.