Will Kim Jong-un reopen dialogue with US? All eyes on North Korean party plenum for answers

A key party meeting in North Korea this month will be closely watched for any sign that Kim Jong-un may be open to dialogue with the incoming Trump administration in the US. The ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) plans to convene the 11th plenary meeting of its 8th Central Committee in late December, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). The meeting will “review the execution of the party and state policies in 2024, confirm orientation of struggle for 2025 and discuss and decide on a series of important issues arising in achieving the comprehensive development of socialist construction,” KCNA said. Such year-end meetings have traditionally been used to review the past year’s administrative performance and outline policies for the coming year. Analysts note that Kim often uses such occasions to announce diplomatic strategies, including potential messages directed at Washington and Seoul. Since discontinuing the tradition of delivering a New Year speech on January 1, Kim has used these meetings as a platform for key announcements. “The critical question this time is whether Kim will even mention the word ‘dialogue’, with or without conditions,” Yang Moo-jin, head of the University of North Korean Studies, told This Week in Asia. Over recent years, North Korea’s plenary meetings have spanned up to five days, showcasing a review of party and government policies while attempting to project the image of a functioning socialist state rather than one centred on a singular leader. Last month, Kim criticised his previous diplomatic efforts with the United States, asserting that they had only reinforced Washington’s “hostile policy” towards Pyongyang. “We have already exhausted all options in negotiations with the US, and what became clear was their unchanging invasive and hostile stance towards North Korea,” Kim said at the opening ceremony of an arms exhibition. Kim has yet to comment on Donald Trump’s re-election but has hinted at scepticism regarding renewed talks, even though Trump’s return to the White House has reignited speculation about the possibility of another summit. During Trump’s first term, the two leaders held multiple meetings, including summits in Singapore and Hanoi in 2018 and 2019, though they failed to reach any substantive agreements. “Kim is likely to accuse the US of maintaining its hostile policy against Pyongyang regardless of the administration in power,” Yang said. “He will probably re-emphasise the North’s commitment to strengthening its nuclear deterrent.” Observers are also watching how North Korea might shift its emphasis on personality cults from Kim’s predecessors – his grandfather Kim Il-sung and father Kim Jong-il – to himself. This could include officially designating the current leader’s birthday, January 8, as a national holiday, overshadowing celebrations of his ancestors’ birthdays. Analysts speculate that North Korea may use the coming meeting to announce plans for nuclear tests, new intercontinental ballistic missile launches, or a large military parade to mark the party’s 80th anniversary next year. Kim’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, could also be elevated to a full member of the political bureau, further consolidating her influence. Professor Koh Yu-hwan, former head of the Korea Institute for National Unification, suggested that Kim might reaffirm North Korea’s position against denuclearisation talks, citing frustration from the failed Hanoi summit. “However, the North might express interest in dialogue if the US acknowledges its status as a nuclear-armed state and initiates discussions on improving relations and arms reduction,” Koh said. Meanwhile, North Korea’s strengthening ties with Russia and growing energy and food support from its resource-rich neighbour provide Pyongyang with leverage. Reports suggest that North Korea has sent about 12,000 troops to support Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently claimed that some of these troops had already been killed in combat in Russia’s western Kursk Oblast, though he did not specify numbers. However, US Department of Defence Press Secretary Pat Ryder said on Monday that Washington could not confirm North Korean troop involvement in combat operations. “We’ve not seen the DPRK [North Korea] engaging in offensive combat operations, although we do expect at a certain point in time that that will very likely happen,” Ryder said.

Will Kim Jong-un reopen dialogue with US? All eyes on North Korean party plenum for answers

Analysts say Kim has used previous plenary meetings to announce diplomatic strategies, including messages aimed at the US and South Korea