Trump’s return sparks anxiety in Australia’s defence community over Aukus submarine deal

While some analysts believe the alliance remains strong, others fear Trump’s transactional approach could lead to instability

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Donald Trump gestures as he meets House Republicans in Washington on November 13. Photo: Reuters

Published: 8:00am, 15 Nov 2024Updated: 1:07pm, 15 Nov 2024

The imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House has raised alarms among Australia’s defence community, with analysts concerned his approach to foreign policy could destabilise the Indo-Pacific and complicate the multibillion-dollar Aukus submarine project.

Nick Bisley, dean of humanities and social sciences at La Trobe University in Melbourne, said that despite Australian leaders’ public confidence in the US alliance, there was significant unease behind the scenes.

“There is a great deal of uncertainty about just what direction the US will go with Trump,” Bisley said, adding that the Australia-US alliance remained strong in the short to medium term.

However, the longer-term issues were much more worrying, he said, noting that Trump’s foreign policy could “badly destabilise Asia” which would negatively affect Australia.

A Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarine that Australia is set to acquire from the US. Photo: US Navy

“Indeed, the most likely outcome is a much more volatile region,” Bisley said, adding that there remained “significant long-term concerns” about the viability of the Aukus submarine deal.