South Korea’s Ukraine support strategy shifts with Trump’s re-election

Seoul’s pivot away from weapons shipments comes amid tepid public support for the move – and Trump’s vow to negotiate an end to the war

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South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol answers questions during a press conference at the Presidential Office in Seoul on Thursday. Photo: AFP

Published: 12:24pm, 12 Nov 2024Updated: 12:25pm, 12 Nov 2024

South Korea’s bid to arm Ukraine appears to be losing momentum in the wake of Donald Trump’s re-election in the United States.

While President Yoon Suk-yeol had hinted at potential weapons shipments as late as last week, the recent emphasis by his defence minister on dispatching “observers” instead has raised questions about Seoul’s commitment.

Historically, South Korea has refrained from supplying weapons to active conflict zones, but the emergence of reports about North Korean troops joining Russian forces in the Ukraine conflict prompted a re-evaluation of this stance.

“Trump’s re-election as the 47th US president has added a significant variable to South Korea’s policy calculus regarding Ukraine,” Wi Sung-lac, a veteran diplomat and opposition lawmaker, told This Week in Asia. “His victory strengthens voices among political and academic circles here advocating for caution on this issue.”

Trump has repeatedly boasted that he could resolve the war in Ukraine within a day, although Russian UN ambassador Vassily Nebenzia dismissed the idea as unrealistic in July.

A Ukrainian artillery cannon is fired towards Russian positions in the Kherson region on October. 27. Photo: AP

Public sentiment in South Korea remains cautious, with a recent Korea Gallup poll revealing that 66 per cent of respondents believe aid should be limited to humanitarian efforts, with only 13 per cent supporting military assistance.