Election clouds loom over Japan’s ruling party as Ishiba’s approval ratings nosedive

A poor showing at the October 27 polls could weaken the LDP’s grip on power and render Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba a lame duck

Reading Time:3 minutes

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba makes a stump speech on Thursday ahead of the October 27 general election. Photo: Kyodo

Published: 10:00am, 19 Oct 2024

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s dismal public approval ratings – the lowest for any new Japanese leader in decades – casts a long shadow over the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) as it approaches the October 27 general election, raising the spectre of a swift leadership challenge.

Analysts warn that a poor electoral performance could render Ishiba a lame duck just weeks into his tenure, forcing the LDP to lean heavily on its junior coalition partner, Komeito, and emboldening rivals within his party.

A recent Jiji Press poll, published on Thursday, revealed that public support for the government has plummeted to 28 per cent, the lowest initial approval rating since 2000.

While this is slightly better than former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s 18.7 per cent before he quit the leadership race in September, it still falls short of the critical 30 per cent threshold considered a “danger zone” for leaders.

Kishida began his term with over 40 per cent support, while his predecessor Yoshihide Suga started with 51.2 per cent.

Shigeru Ishiba (second from left) campaigns with an LDP candidate during a rally in Fukushima prefecture on Tuesday. Photo: EPA-EFE

“I expect the LDP to lose its absolute majority but probably remain in power with Komeito, which will in return be able to promote some of its more family-friendly social policies,” said Stephen Nagy, a politics professor at Tokyo’s International Christian University.