Japan LDP at crossroads with Kishida’s impending exit – can opposition take advantage?

Several LDP members have put their names in the hat to succeed Fumio Kishida as the party aims to recover from a string of scandals

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People walk past a large screen in Tokyo displaying news about Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s announced resignation as LDP leader. Photo: Reuters

Published: 8:00am, 15 Aug 2024

The announcement by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida that he will not seek re-election as head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has caught politicians and pundits off guard, with the LDP at the crossroads amid a myriad of challenges facing Japan.

It has also triggered speculation as to his likely successor, with several high-profile LDP members indicating before Kishida’s Wednesday announcement that they would seek the leadership of both the party and the nation. The LDP election must take place before the end of September, and the winner will have a three-year term to try to turn around the party’s fortunes and win the next general election.

“Kishida has been struggling badly in public opinion polls for some time, and it was clear that he was under pressure, but the timing of this announcement is still a surprise,” said Hiromi Murakami, a professor of political science at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.

The prime minister’s public support level rose by 2.4 percentage points to 24.6 per cent in a Kyodo News poll in late July from a month earlier, while a Jiji Press poll put his support rate at 15.5 per cent earlier in July.

The LDP has been badly bruised by several scandals since Kishida assumed office in October 2021, notably over its close ties to the controversial Unification Church that only came to light after the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in July 2022. A more recent scandal involved slush funds amassed by dozens of party members.

A branch of the Unification Church, formerly known as the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification, in Tokyo. Photo: Xinhua/Zhang Xiaoyu

Analysts say while Kishida may have wanted to stay on, he sensed that the party could force him out due to his low public support.