Middle East talks to defuse tensions over Iran and Israel-Gaza war fuel hope of respite

Iran and its allies are expected to calibrate retaliation against Israel over the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh, analysts say

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Protesters hold up posters of newly appointed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh at a rally in Sanaa, Yemen. Photo: Reuters

Published: 3:26pm, 13 Aug 2024Updated: 4:18pm, 13 Aug 2024

Hope is growing that Iran and its allies will calibrate their retaliation against Israel for assassinating Palestinian Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month to avoid a devastating response from Israel and the sizeable American military presence gathering in the Middle East.

A renewed diplomatic push last week by key Israeli ally the United States and regional mediators Egypt and Qatar calling for Israel and Hamas to resume talks this Thursday on a ceasefire in Gaza could even persuade Iran to hold its fire, analysts said. Israel continues to neither confirm nor deny accusations by Iran that it was involved in the assassination.

“It is not too late” to diplomatically avert retaliatory strikes on Israel by Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah and their allies, said Barbara Slavin, distinguished Middle East fellow of the Stimson Centre, a Washington think tank.

“If we can get a ceasefire [in Gaza], the Iranians can claim credit,” she told This Week In Asia.

In their joint statement on August 11, the US, Egypt and Qatar urged Israel and Hamas to meet either in Cairo or Doha on August 15 to finalise the details of a framework agreement proposed in May by President Joe Biden.

“There is no further time to waste, nor excuses from any party for further delay. It is time to release the hostages, begin the ceasefire, and implement this agreement,” they said.