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Dimuthu Attanayake

As Sri Lanka gears up for its first presidential election since the crippling 2022 economic crisis, the once-powerful Rajapaksa family has announced a political heir in a move seen by observers as its comeback bid.
This week, the Sri Lanka People’s Front (SLPP) led by the Rajapaksa clan unveiled Namal Rajapaksa, the 38-year-old son of popular war-time leader Mahinda Rajapaksa, as the presidential candidate for the election on September 21.
Analysts say a “herculean task” lies ahead for the younger man, who has been hailed by his father as the youth leader demanded by the earlier protest movement.
The family rose to power in the last stages of Sri Lanka’s three-decade civil war with separatist Tamil group LTTE and was hailed as heroes, especially by the country’s Sinhala Buddhist majority, following the victory of government forces in 2009.
After dominating Sri Lankan politics for close to two decades, the clan met its downfall during mass protests sparked by the country’s debilitating economic crisis.
In May 2022, while serving his third tenure as prime minister, Mahinda Rajapaksa was forced to quit the position and flee to a naval base in eastern Sri Lanka. His brother, then president Gotabaya Rajapaksa, was forced to leave the country and resign just two months after thousands of Sri Lankans gathered in Colombo to protest against the regime over unbearably high living costs and scarcity of essentials such as medicine and fuel.
Namal Rajapaksa was forced to resign as the youth and sports minister in the same crisis.

The protesters stormed into official buildings and occupied the presidential premises, as well as the president’s and prime minister’s official residences, where they swam in the president’s pool, slept on his bed and played his piano.
In 2023, in a landmark judgment, Sri Lanka’s apex court ruled that Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, Mahinda Rajapaksa, and their younger brother and former finance minister Basil Rajapaksa were responsible for the country’s economic crisis.
Now, as Namal Rajapaksa awaits his first presidential election, many experts say the clan still has ambitions to return to the forefront of Sri Lankan politics.
“Running Namal [as a presidential candidate] shows that they have a political future,” Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, executive director of the Colombo-based think tank, Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA), told This Week in Asia.
But Saravanamuttu said the younger Rajapaksa’s ultimate goal was the following presidential election, rather than the 2024 contest.
“If a Rajapaksa candidate does not run, then that whole legacy and that whole [attempt] about creating a dynasty fails,” Saravanamuttu said. Namal Rajapaksa, however, faces a herculean task to show that he can do reasonably well at the 2024 election to show there is still support for his family, according to Saravanamuttu.

However, Melani Gunathilaka, a protester from the movement that toppled the Rajapaksa regime, has called on Sri Lankans to continue the fight against the clan.
“I think Sri Lankans will remember what they fought for [during protests], and will defeat the Rajapaksas not only this time but also in the future. This is Rajapksas trying to show their power, trying to see what chances they have,” she said.
While there was still a core group of Sri Lankans who supported either Mahinda Rajapaksa or the clan, it was unclear if they would support Namal Rajapaksa, said Saravanamuttu, adding that the younger Rajapaksa lacked the charisma of his father.
Rajni Gamage, a political scientist at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, agreed, saying: “Namal Rajapaksa’s political skills and the party’s resilience will be severely tested during this process.”
The clan’s high dependency on 78-year-old Mahinda Rajapaksa to appeal to Sri Lankans was a “key weakness” given the politician’s age, according to Gamage.
“For the political future of the Rajapaksa clan, the key family members in the party need to regroup and build from the base,” Gamage said.

Namal Rajapaksa’s candidacy was announced as divisions within his political party became more pronounced with the coming election. Some SLPP parliamentarians wanted to support the incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe in the election just days before Namal Rajapaksa’s candidacy was announced.
Some of these SLPP parliamentarians felt that opportunities within the party were limited for those who were not a part of the Rajapaksa family, Gamage said.
The presidential election is seen as a pivotal part of Sri Lanka’s reforms outlined under the International Monetary Fund’s US$2.9 billion bailout, which the country secured after its 2022 default.
While several indicators show that Sri Lanka’s economy is recovering with growth of 5.3 per cent and inflation easing to below 5 per cent in the first quarter, many Sri Lankans are still dissatisfied with the high cost of living due to the IMF’s austerity measures, according to analysts.
As such, Namal Rajapaksa could be biding his time to chart a successful political career over the medium term amid the current deep economic and social crisis, said Jayadeva Uyangoda, a political scientist and professor emeritus from the University of Colombo.
“Namal Rajapaksa might be thinking along these lines if there is a deep political crisis and if people become unhappy with the new government, he might be thinking that it will open up chances for him five to six years down the line.”


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Sri Lanka’s Rajapaksa clan eyes comeback in presidential election, faces ‘herculean task’

Namal Rajapaksa, son of ex-Sri Lankan president Mahinda Rajapaksa, greets his supporters on August 7 after being nominated by Sri Lanka’s ruling Podujana Peramuna party as their presidential candidate for the upcoming election. Photo: EPA-EFE

Demonstrators protest inside the President’s House in Colombo after Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled amid the country’s economic crisis, on July 9, 2022. Photo: Reuters

Sri Lanka’s then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his Prime Minister brother Mahinda Rajapaksa pose for a group photograph after the ministerial swearing-in ceremony in Colombo in 2019. Photo: AFP

Peter Breuer, International Monetary Fund Mission Senior Chief for Sri Lanka, speaks during a media briefing in Colombo last year on the first review under the IMF’s extended facility fund arrangement. Photo: EPA-EFE

Sri Lanka president’s debt deal speech raises doubts: real relief or election rhetoric?

A supporter of Sri Lanka’s President Ranil Wickremesinghe cheers as he watches the president’s televised announcement of the country’s debt restructuring agreements on June 26. Photo: AP 

President Ranil Wickremesinghe addressing the nation about the country’s debt restructuring agreements on June 26. Photo Sri Lanka President’s Office via AFP

India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar (right) meets Sri Lankan political leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake in New Delhi on February 5. Photo: X / @DrSJaishankar

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Raw cobalt is seen at a manufacturing plant. Sri Lanka does not yet hold sovereign rights over the area of cobalt-rich seabed that it claims. Photo: AFP

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Sri Lanka party names Rajapaksa scion as presidential candidate for September 21 election

Namal Rajapaksa (centre), son of former Sri Lankan president Mahinda Rajapaksa, greets his supporters after being nominated by Sri Lanka’s ruling Podujana Peramuna party as their presidential candidate for the upcoming election. Photo EPA-EFE

Gotabaya Rajapaksa (right) and his brother Mahinda Rajapaksa are part a political dynasty in Sri Lanka. Photo: AFP

Sri Lanka announces first presidential election since declaring bankruptcy in 2022

Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe. File photo: AP

The Sri Lankan capital, Colombo. File photo: AFP

Last month, President Ranil Wickremesinghe announced a debt restructuring deal with countries including India, France, Japan and China. Photo: AFP

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Namal Rajapaksa’s candidacy comes after his father and uncle fell from power in 2022 due to protests over Sri Lanka’s economic crisis


Namal Rajapaksa’s candidacy comes after his father and uncle fell from power in 2022 due to protests over Sri Lanka’s economic crisis.


International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Asia elections

Protests around the world