Nato’s push to integrate 4 Asia-Pacific countries faces China and Ukraine war hurdles

The US is pushing for Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea to ‘institutionalise’ with Nato to combat common threats

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South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol, New Zealand’s PM Cristopher Luxon, Japan’s PM Fumio Kishida and Australia’s Deputy PM Richard Marles pose for photos before a meeting of NATO’s four Indo-Pacific partners in Washington. Photo: Kyodo

Published: 11:30am, 21 Jul 2024

The plan by the United States to “institutionalise” four Asia-Pacific countries within the Nato framework is likely to hinge on a raft of factors such as the course of the Russia-Ukraine war, China’s continued “aggression” and the coming US presidential election.

Observers also say the move is aimed at ensuring a future American administration cannot easily reverse the arrangement, which is motivated by growing disappointment with other existing US-led alliances such as the Quad.

Last Wednesday, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said in an interview with South Korean news agency Yonhap that the US wanted to “institutionalise” the four Indo-Pacific partners of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or Nato, as Washington refocuses its attention on the region.

The grouping of Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea is commonly referred to as the IP4.

Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at the think tank Rand, said the institutionalisation of IP4-Nato cooperation would depend on the outcome of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, the level of “Chinese assertiveness” in Asia-Pacific, and the US presidential election in November

“If the war ends on Ukraine’s terms, then IP4 would probably have less salience going forward”, but if Russia were to defeat Ukraine or achieve even limited goals, the US and Nato would view IP4 “as part of maintaining what is left of the liberal rules-based international order”, Grossman said.

Whether China would continue to threaten Taiwan and other regional neighbours could be a key factor, Grossman said, noting that if US President Joe Biden were to be reelected, the IP4 was likely to be further institutionalised.