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Opinion | Why Iran worries about Donald Trump becoming US president again

  • A second Trump presidency could mean potential economic shocks for Iran, bolder military action against it and increased protest movements
  • It poses immense risks for Iran’s leadership, especially given the recent tit-for-tat strikes with Israel and the threat of a wider Middle East war

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Iranians walk down a street in Tehran earlier this year. Iran’s leadership is in the midst of the most serious legitimacy crisis in the Islamic Republic’s history. Photo: Reuters
There has been much talk in recent months about what a possible second Donald Trump presidency in the United States could mean for Europe, Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Israel-Gaza war and China. But there’s one more country closely watching the race: Iran.
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Another Trump presidency could pose immense risks for the Iranian leadership, especially given the recent tit-for-tat strikes with Israel, the looming threat of a wider Middle East war, and other significant internal challenges.

Under such conditions, there are three ways a new Trump administration might pose a threat to the clerical establishment: a potential economic shock, bolder military action against the regime and increased protest movements.

Renewed economic pressure

In 2018, Trump withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by his predecessor, Barack Obama, and imposed crippling sanctions on the country as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign on the Iranian government.
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