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Opinion | Why Iran worries about Donald Trump becoming US president again
- A second Trump presidency could mean potential economic shocks for Iran, bolder military action against it and increased protest movements
- It poses immense risks for Iran’s leadership, especially given the recent tit-for-tat strikes with Israel and the threat of a wider Middle East war
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There has been much talk in recent months about what a possible second Donald Trump presidency in the United States could mean for Europe, Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Israel-Gaza war and China. But there’s one more country closely watching the race: Iran.
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Another Trump presidency could pose immense risks for the Iranian leadership, especially given the recent tit-for-tat strikes with Israel, the looming threat of a wider Middle East war, and other significant internal challenges.
Under such conditions, there are three ways a new Trump administration might pose a threat to the clerical establishment: a potential economic shock, bolder military action against the regime and increased protest movements.
Renewed economic pressure
In 2018, Trump withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by his predecessor, Barack Obama, and imposed crippling sanctions on the country as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign on the Iranian government.
Iran’s then-vice president, Eshaq Jahangiri, described the subsequent year as the “toughest” since the Islamic Republic’s inception.
Trump’s campaign reduced Iran’s oil exports to a historic low of under 400,000 barrels per day, significantly slashing the country’s petrodollars, which represent about 70 per cent of government revenues. Moreover, between 2018 and 2020, Iran’s national currency depreciated by more than 600 per cent.
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After Joe Biden was elected president in 2020, Iran managed to increase its oil exports. It was recently reported that Iran’s oil exports have reached a six-year high of around 1.56 million barrels per day in the first three month of this year.
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