Indonesia-China ties: will president-elect Prabowo confront Beijing or maintain Widodo’s economic deals?

Several analysts say Prabowo is unlikely to do anything to upend the economic cooperation outgoing president Joko Widodo has established with China

But, one observer believes Prabowo may use Indonesia’s non-aligned position to benefit from both Washington and Beijing’s competing interests in the country

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Analysts are curious how Indonesia’s foreign policy towards China will differ under Prabowo Subianto’s rule. Photo: EPA-EFE

Amy Sood,Resty Woro YuniarandAnand Mathai

Published: 10:00am, 16 Feb 2024Updated: 10:12am, 16 Feb 2024

Following Indonesia Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto’s projected victory in Wednesday’s presidential election, based on unofficial quick-count results, many are concerned about how the former general will steer the country’s foreign policy, particularly when it comes to China.

While some analysts believe Prabowo may take a more hardline stance towards Beijing, based on his past nationalistic rhetoric and military background, others say he is likely to maintain the pragmatic approach of outgoing President Joko Widodo, who has fuelled much of the country’s rapid infrastructure development over the last decade with Chinese investment.

Tom Pepinsky, a professor and director of the Southeast Asia Programme at Cornell University, said the question of how Prabowo would play off China and the United States was an interesting one, but predicted Jakarta would “continue to be not-aligned in its foreign policy outlook”.

Indeed, Prabowo promised as much when articulating his foreign policy on the campaign trail. During a November talk at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Jakarta, Prabowo told the audience Indonesia would “maintain our independent foreign policy”, saying the country would not join any military or geopolitical bloc while preserving good relations with all of its neighbours.

Nur Rachmat Yuliantoro, head of the international relations department at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, said Prabowo may use Indonesia’s non-aligned position to benefit from both of the superpowers’ competing interests in the country.

“He sees China as a major actor that can be a sufficient counterweight to the power of another major actor, the United States,” Nur said. “Indonesia is likely to continue to take a position in the middle while trying to maximise the benefits of available security guarantees.”

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Indonesia-China ties: will president-elect Prabowo confront Beijing or maintain Widodo’s economic deals?

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