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Indonesia election 2024: is Prabowo Subianto a ‘wild card’ with a nationalistic agenda?

  • Defence minister with a combative past is expected to take a stronger stand on foreign policy
  • His alliance with incumbent President Widodo, however, may induce the country’s political parties to realign into a robust opposition

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Prabowo Subianto (left) delivers an election speech with running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of Indonesian President Joko Widodo. Photo: Reuters
With Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto set to be the country’s next president, questions remain on whether he will continue with incumbent President Joko Widodo’s policies or take the nation in a new direction.
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While the rival-turned-ally of Widodo has not articulated extensively on Indonesia’s economic and social blueprints, he has hinted at a more assertive foreign policy centred on the country’s rightful place on the world stage.

Prabowo is “a wild card” and the world should be prepared for “some surprises” from his government, according to Alexander R. Arifianto, a senior fellow with the Indonesia Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

Based on quick-count results, Prabowo, alongside his running mate, Widodo’s eldest son Gibran Raka Rakabuming, secured around 58 per cent of the vote during Wednesday’s election. Should the official results reflect the quick counts – which has been a historical trend – it would mean Prabowo has handily defeated his two rivals Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo.

In a victory speech to supporters on Wednesday night, Prabowo said: “All survey institutions, including institutions that are on the sides of other candidate pairs, show figures that the Prabowo-Gibran pair won in one round.

Prabowo dances on stage at a post-election gathering with supporters while declaring his win. Photo: AFP
Prabowo dances on stage at a post-election gathering with supporters while declaring his win. Photo: AFP

“Gibran and I said, although we are grateful, we should not be arrogant. We can’t be proud. We must not be euphoric. We must remain humble, this victory must be a victory for all Indonesian people.”

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This was the 72-year-old’s third campaign to lead the country after losing two bitterly contested presidential races in 2014 and 2019, both times to Widodo. Still, the president named Prabowo as his defence minister in 2020.

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