Could Duterte’s Mindanao bid spark tensions in Philippines that ‘suit Beijing’s agenda’ in South China Sea?

The ex-president’s call for Mindanao’s independence could reignite internal ‘hatreds’ on an island with long-running communist and Islamist insurgencies

While some dismiss his bid as ‘all talk’, other analysts say the move could ‘distract’ the Philippines from the South China Sea row, benefitting Beijing

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Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte speaks during the annual state of the nation address at the House of Representatives in Manila on July 26, 2023. PHOTO: AFP

Published: 12:00pm, 13 Feb 2024Updated: 1:10pm, 13 Feb 2024

Rodrigo Duterte’s disclosure that he is seeking secession for the southern Philippine island of Mindanao has drawn a mixture of scepticism about the motives of the bombastic former president, and concern over the potential to divert military resources from the South China Sea.

During a January 30 livestream of his long-running talk show Gikan sa Masa, Para sa Masa (From the Masses, for the Masses), Duterte casually revealed he had assigned his close political associate, Congressman Pantaleon Alvarez, to “regroup” his allies and pursue a secession bid for Mindanao.

Duterte insisted his plan “will not be rebellion nor sedition” on the island, home to a quarter of the Philippine population, but would instead involve a petition of residents which would be submitted to the United Nations.

The Duterte clan draws their political power from Davao, Mindanao’s largest city.

Ex-Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte is advocating for independence for Mindanao. Photo: Malacanang Presidential Photographers Division via AP

Experts say he may find fertile ground for resentment among the island’s 27 million residents, who in 2022 voted overwhelmingly for Marcos Jnr as president because Duterte and his daughter Sara Duterte-Carpio – who ran as Marcos’ running mate – urged them to do so.