Indonesia election 2024: is Prabowo Subianto poised for a first-round win? Survey numbers suggest so but voter turnout critical

The ex-general and long-time presidential hopeful could win Indonesia’s top job without the need for a second round of voting, according to the polls

With Jokowi’s eldest son as his running mate, he has the outgoing president’s barely concealed support. But the seeds of discontent have been sown

Reading Time:7 minutes

Indonesian presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto greets supporters during a campaign rally in Malang, East Java, earlier this month. Photo: AP

Published: 9:00am, 13 Feb 2024Updated: 12:19pm, 14 Feb 2024

Like nyepi in tourist hotspot Bali where natives enter into contemplative silence, Indonesia is having three days of quiet before Wednesday’s presidential and legislative polls, with surveys showing Prabowo Subianto in the lead.

As more than 204 million eligible voters cast their ballots in one of the world’s biggest elections on February 14, Prabowo and running mate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, have been aggressively pushing for a single round of balloting, arguing that a second would prove divisive.

The 75 days of campaigning have been a roller-coaster ride for Prabowo and the other two pairs of candidates: former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan and his vice-presidential candidate Muhaimin Iskandar; and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo and partner Mahfud MD.

Anies Baswedan (centre, left) and Muhaimin Iskandar (centre, right) greet supporters during their final campaign rally on Saturday at the Jakarta International Stadium. Photo: AFP

A presidential candidate in the 2014 and 2019 elections who lost out to incumbent Joko Widodo and was later co-opted as defence minister, Prabowo is making his third bid for the top job. This time, in a move redolent with irony and laden with Widodo’s desire to retain his legacy, Prabowo has the outgoing president’s barely concealed support.

Gibran, Widodo’s eldest son, made it onto Prabowo’s ticket as vice-presidential sidekick after the Constitutional Court ruled the 36-year-old could run, despite the minimum age being 40. The court was led by Widodo’s brother-in-law.

Posters of Prabowo and Widodo – since taken down during the quiet phase – could be seen plastered all over key provinces, all but signalling the president’s endorsement. Widodo, or Jokowi, as he is widely known, belongs to the ruling Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

The PDI-P is fielding its own candidates, Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud, who have not received even a nod of support from Jokowi and have become more critical of some of his policies. Ganjar has also declared he can win without the popular president’s support.