South China Sea: is Philippines risking a ‘major naval war’ with its alliance building to counter Beijing?
- Apart from the US, the Philippines is expanding its military alliances with Japan, Australia and Germany amid growing tensions with China
- Without more top-level talks between Manila and Beijing to ease tensions, analysts say both sides risk ‘miscalculations’ that could lead to war
Lucio Blanco Pitlo, Asian affairs analyst and research fellow at Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress, a Manila-based think tank, told This Week in Asia that “if the current dynamic continues and hotline communications and high-level dialogue are absent, there is a risk of accident and miscalculation”.
Recent Chinese activities focused on the Second Thomas Shoal are being dubbed “grey-zone” actions by analysts.
Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said the “grey zone” referred to what think tank Rand Corporation defined as “an operational space between peace and war” typically involving “coercive actions”.
The recent clashes have their roots in 1999 when Manila grounded the World War II-era tank-landing ship Sierra Madre on the shoal and deployed marines aboard to forestall Chinese encroachment.
