Advertisement
South China Sea: is Philippines risking a ‘major naval war’ with its alliance building to counter Beijing?
- Apart from the US, the Philippines is expanding its military alliances with Japan, Australia and Germany amid growing tensions with China
- Without more top-level talks between Manila and Beijing to ease tensions, analysts say both sides risk ‘miscalculations’ that could lead to war
Reading Time:6 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
72
China’s escalation of so-called grey-zone activities against the Philippines, and Manila’s response in seeking more allies, could cause already-brewing tensions in the region to spiral out of control.
Advertisement
This was the assessment by analysts weighing in on the recent spate of actions in the disputed South China Sea, particularly over the Second Thomas Shoal, which Manila calls Ayungin, an atoll about 190km (120 miles) northwest of the Philippine island of Palawan.
Lucio Blanco Pitlo, Asian affairs analyst and research fellow at Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress, a Manila-based think tank, told This Week in Asia that “if the current dynamic continues and hotline communications and high-level dialogue are absent, there is a risk of accident and miscalculation”.
Advertisement
Recent Chinese activities focused on the Second Thomas Shoal are being dubbed “grey-zone” actions by analysts.
Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said the “grey zone” referred to what think tank Rand Corporation defined as “an operational space between peace and war” typically involving “coercive actions”.
Advertisement