As Russia launches action against Ukraine and most of the world rallies around Kyiv, the limits of China’s new, more muscular, foreign policy have grown more apparent.
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Ukraine poses a compelling question for Beijing: How to manage relations between Russia and the United States as a new era of great power rivalry ramps up. While Russia is masterful at creating – and taking advantage of – tensions, Beijing’s tendency is to be passive. Last weekend, at the 58th Munich Security Conference, Chinese Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi said the security of one country should not be achieved at the expense of others, and that regional security should not be based on strengthening blocs.
The Ukraine crisis has thus become a litmus test for what the Chinese media outlet Global Times described as an unprecedented China-Russia relationship to start a new era of international relations that is not defined by the US.
Russian armoured vehicles at the railway station in Rostov region, Russia, 23 February 2022. Photo: EPA-EFE
Both have increased their economic cooperation, with overlapping alignments on international issues. But Beijing craves stability for its brand of “win-win” economic diplomacy and benefits from the international order, even though it is bent on inexorably shaping it more to its liking. While China is reforming the People’s Liberation Army, this is still a work in progress – in any case, it is doubtful Beijing will be able, or willing, to add the stick to its basket of carrots.
Russia’s iron fist thrives on chaos. It is using brute force to impose its vision of a new European security order. It has used private companies to gain a foothold in areas from Syria to Mali. Moscow cannot afford to add economic diplomacy to its strategic toolbox – its economy is minuscule, relatively speaking.
What happened in Kazakhstan last month revealed China’s fundamentally different approach to Russia in securing its strategic interests. Beijing was forced to look on – and lend grudging support – to armed intervention by the Russian-led Collective Security Treat Organisation (CSTO) in a country that sits on its border, and which is a linchpin of its signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
This by no means suggests that their differing approaches will raise friction. The Sino-Russia relationship has evolved from symbiotic distrust since the 1990s to a comprehensive strategic partnership. What’s fuelling it is the ongoing search for a new global security architecture. The US’ Indo-Pacific strategy, Russia-Nato rivalry, and Turkish adventurism in the Middle East all showcase the need for regional conflict resolution. The lack of unity in the West and Washington’s shift in geostrategic priorities has accelerated the alignment between Moscow and Beijing.
