Donald Trump or Joe Biden? What will change for Asean after the US election?

Name: The ‘Yiwu Index’: How a Chinese city could predict the result of the US Presidential election
Uploaded: 2020-09-21T15:15:15.000Z
Duration: 2 min 39 s
Description: The ‘Yiwu Index’: How a Chinese city could predict the result of the US Presidential election

There is growing consensus in Southeast Asia that US-China and South China Sea tensions and the impact of the trade war will not go away after November

Trump’s failure to appoint an Asean envoy is seen as an insult, as analysts hope the US stops dealing with the region through the lens of its China rivalry

Reading Time:6 minutes

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Southeast Asia commentators believe that much of Trump’s policies towards China would be retained by Biden if he won the presidency. Illustration: SCMP

Bhavan Jaipragas

Published: 11:15pm, 21 Sep 2020Updated: 6:39pm, 12 Nov 2020

As voters in the United States prepare for the presidential election on November 3, the South China Morning Post is exploring the potential ramifications for China. The 11th part in the series looks at the race through the eyes of non-US citizens directly affected by deteriorating US-China relations. Read the entire series here.

In Southeast Asia, foreign policy thinkers are under no illusions that the immense baggage accompanying US-China tensions will disappear immediately in the event that the Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, triumphs over President Donald Trump in November’s election.

While it is indeed a prevailing view that Trump’s hawkishness is a key driver of the US-China rivalry, finding equal resonance among the diplomatic elite is the view that the clash was inevitable – meaning countries must contend with it no matter who occupies the White House.

With Biden now ahead of the incumbent in various polls, there has been a flurry of commentary over what will change for Southeast Asian countries – and the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) – if the former vice-president emerges victorious.

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The ‘Yiwu Index’: How a Chinese city could predict the result of the US Presidential election

A survey of Southeast Asian government, business and media elites by Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in January found that 60 per cent of respondents believed the US would be a better strategic partner if there were a change of leadership in November’s vote.

But even among those who quietly hope for some change from Trump’s haphazard, at times mercurial, way of conducting foreign policy, there is a slight sense of weariness.

SCMP Series

China, America and the US elections

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