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Meaghan Tobin

1. A CROSS-STRAIT CONUNDRUM
Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen is widely expected to come out on top in the election, which is likely to impact cross-strait relations for years to come. Her stance against closer ties to the mainland has helped her campaign, as has her support for Hong Kong’s anti-government protests – both of which will antagonise Beijing further in 2020 should she remain in power.

2. NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR WARNING
More than a year on from Kim Jong-un’s much-lauded summit with US President Donald Trump, the two sides have made no measurable progress toward denuclearisation, and 2020 opened with vows from the North Korean leader to expand Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal. The North’s weak economy and uncertainty about whether Trump will stay in office could keep Kim talking tough in the run-up to the American elections.
Donald Trump keeps faith in Kim Jong-un despite North Korea’s threat of ‘shocking action’
3. DOES THE RCEP NEED INDIA?
Talks over what might be the world’s largest trade deal were put on ice in 2019 when Japan balked over signing a pact that did not include India, but the remaining 15 countries plan to sign the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement this year. The China-backed agreement could potentially lower barriers for more than 30 per cent of global trade.

4. SOUTHEAST ASIA’S 5G ROLL-OUT
Countries across Southeast Asia plan to roll out 5G networks this year, using technology from Chinese telecoms giant Huawei – despite US warnings about security issues. This will bring high-speed data processing to millions of internet users in Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and beyond. Huawei has already spent billions on trials in Thailand and the Philippines. Both countries are American allies.
In New Year message, Singapore PM Lee allays globalisation fears as election looms
5. SINGAPORE ELECTIONS: 4G IN THE LIMELIGHT
The ruling People’s Action Party, which has held power for six decades, is seeking re-election for the 15th consecutive time. Deputy prime minister Heng Swee Keat, first among equals in the fourth-generation leadership dubbed the 4G team, is expected to succeed Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong some time after the general election.

6. WHAT’S NEXT FOR HONG KONG?
An estimated 1 million Hongkongers kicked off the new year with a mass protest that quickly descended into violent clashes with police, setting the tone for 2020 as the unrest looks set to continue with no resolution in sight. Elections for its Legislative Council will be held in September, and the first US Congress-mandated report on Hong Kong’s human rights and democracy that could potentially lead to sanctions on the city is due this year.
7. ASEAN AND SOUTH CHINA SEA TENSIONS
Vietnam’s turn as chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) this year comes amid heightened tensions over Chinese naval activity in the South China Sea. The bloc is working to develop a long-stalled code of conduct for the disputed waterway, where Beijing last year had stand-offs with Hanoi, Kuala Lumpur and Manila. Indonesia kicked off the new year by rejecting China’s claims over a part of the South China Sea.

8. MAHATHIR’S LEGACY
Malaysia is hosting the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) meetings this year, with the legacy of Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad under scrutiny. He will become the first leader to host the summit twice, after first doing so in 1998. Mahathir will be 95 in 2020, and is expected to hand over power to democracy icon Anwar Ibrahim only after the Apec event in November.
Mahathir hits foreign policy speed bump after controversial Kuala Lumpur Summit
9. SRI LANKA AND THE INDIAN OCEAN
Newly elected President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has downplayed his administration’s ties with China, despite speculation he would embrace the pro-Beijing policies of his predecessors. Rajapaksa’s administration could raise a fresh challenge to the deal which saw the controversial lease of Hambantota port to Beijing. Neighbouring India is also gearing up for contests in the Indian Ocean, and this year’s flagship multilateral naval exercise Milan is set to be the biggest ever with 41 countries taking part.

10. UNCERTAINTY IN THAILAND
The delayed formation of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s cabinet saw the later-than-expected reveal of the country’s 2020 budget, bringing public trust to its lowest point in years. Opacity over the government’s direction and a fraught election process last year saw public protests, with more dissatisfaction expected this year as Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy faces slowing GDP growth.
11. XI JINPING VISITS JAPAN
The Chinese president plans to make his first state visit to Japan in April following years of lingering mistrust over the disputed Diaoyu Islands, known in Japan as the Senkaku Islands. The bilateral relationship has improved since a low point in 2012 when Japan nationalised the islands. Xi’s trip follows Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s second visit to China in late December, where the two agreed to push ahead with the RCEP.

12. CHINA, CLIMATE CHANGE CHAMPION?
China reiterated its commitment to the Paris climate accords in 2019 as the United States became the first nation to quit the pact. Though China remains one of the world’s top emitters, Washington’s withdrawal has opened the door for Beijing to take the lead in shaping the global approach to climate change. With Australia’s climate policy encumbered by domestic concerns, Pacific Island nations could increasingly look to Beijing for support against what leaders have described as an existential threat.
Modi’s surgical strike on Muslims puts India at war with itself
13. HINDU NATIONALISM IN INDIA
In Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second term in office, the rise of Hindu nationalism is increasingly at odds with India’s secular, pluralist constitution. The continuing lockdown and unrest in Kashmir after stripping the region of its special status and the nationwide protests against Modi’s plans to implement a national citizenship registry make it an uneasy start to 2020 for his administration.
14. WILL JOKOWI’S “KEEP YOUR ENEMIES CLOSE” STRATEGY WORK?
Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo welcomed former political opponent Prabowo Subianto as his first guest of 2020, having last year moved to smooth political divisions by appointing Prabowo as his defence minister. Proposed reforms to the country’s criminal code saw thousands take to the streets in protests in late 2019, raising questions about Widodo’s policy direction during his second term in office.

15. TOKYO HOSTS THE OLYMPICS
Tokyo in 1964 was the first city in Asia to host the Olympics, and aims to make this summer’s games – which could be attended by as many as 10 million people – the most environmentally sustainable in history. The Olympic Village will run off hydrogen generated in disaster-hit Fukushima. Russia is banned from the Games over doping allegations, though athletes can compete as individuals.
Grim New Year’s Day in Australia as bush fires continue to rage
16. AUSTRALIA’S BURNING ISSUE
Australia’s bush fire crisis shows no signs of abating, with 5 million hectares burned so far and the fires set to rage well into April. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has refused to strengthen the country’s climate change policies – will the international and domestic outcry and outrage change his position?

17. MYANMAR AND SOUTH KOREA VOTE
Myanmar is expected to hold a nationwide vote in November, which could contest the single-party majority of State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy. The new members of parliament will choose the next president. Meanwhile, South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s Democratic Party will seek to retain control of the National Assembly in the country’s April elections.
18. US-CHINA TRADE WAR GAINS AND LOSSES
Thailand, Malaysia, Bangladesh, and the Philippines saw a modest economic boost from the trade war between the US and China, according to preliminary reports, but Vietnam led the pack, seeing its exports to the US jump. As growth in Southeast Asia could be dampened by a global economic slowdown, experts question whether the region will be able to sustain the gains. Meanwhile, East Asia’s export-driven economies in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan took a hit as their China-bound exports fell.

19. MANILA’S WAR ON DRUGS AND GAMING
In 2016, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said it would take six months to end the country’s controversial war on drugs. Four years on, police say the fight has cost over 6,600 people their lives. Manila has another fight on its hands in the new year, as it is looking to increase its collaboration with Chinese law enforcement to crack down on online gaming.
China’s ‘great friendship’ with Micronesia leaving US with Pacific headache
20. CHANGING TIDES IN THE PACIFIC
The Solomon Islands and Kiribati last year embraced official ties with Beijing as well as infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative, raising alarms in Washington and Canberra about China’s growing clout in the Pacific. The diplomatic relations of nations in the region will continue to be in focus as the US lobbies leaders of Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies not to switch recognition to Beijing, while the US and Australia have ramped up aid and infrastructure investment offers in the region.


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Taiwan

Elections in Taiwan and Singapore, Kim’s nuclear ambitions, US-China trade war fallout: 20 things to watch in 2020

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un began the year with vows to expand Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal. Photo: Reuters

epa08084600 Supporters of Taiwan's KMT presidential candidate Han Kuo-yu react during a campaign rally in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, 21 December 2019. Taiwan's China-friendly opposition party Kuomintang (KMT) picked Kaohsiung city Mayor Han Kuo-yu as its candidate in the 2020 presidential election. Han will face President Tsai Ing-wen in the January 2020 election. Tsai, who is from the separatist ruling Democratic Progressive Party, is seeking a second four-year term. EPA-EFE/RITCHIE B. TONGO

Attendees run on the track during a "first run" event at the new National Stadium, venue for the upcoming Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games, in Tokyo on December 21, 2019. (Photo by STR / JIJI PRESS / AFP) / Japan OUT

A person dressed in a costume of anime character Doraemon attends an anti-government demonstration on New Year's Day to call for better governance and democratic reforms in Hong Kong, China, January 1, 2020. REUTERS/Navesh Chitrakar TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) is escorted by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (R) at the start of their talks in Osaka, on June 27, 2019, ahead of the G20 Osaka Summit. (Photo by Kimimasa MAYAMA / POOL / AFP)

FILE - In this July 16, 2019, file photo, Thailand's Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha gestures after a group photo with his Cabinet members at the government house in Bangkok, Thailand. Prayuth said Friday, Aug. 9, 2019 he is not quitting despite facing mounting criticism for failing to properly take his oath of office. Prayuth led members of his Cabinet to be inaugurated in a ceremony presided over by the Thai king on July 16. However, he omitted a phrase while taking the oath where he was supposed to pledge that he will uphold every aspect of the constitution. The omission has raised questions over whether the inauguration was legally valid. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit, File)

A worker puts up a sign of Singapore Prime Minister and People's Action Party (PAP) Secretary-General Lee Hsien Loong on a street lamp ahead of the general election in Singapore September 1, 2015. Singapore goes to the polls on September 11, more than a year before a deadline for the next election, with the government seen riding the feel-good factor of the wealthy city-state's 50th birthday last month amid slowing economic growth. REUTERS/Edgar Su

25 September 2019, US, New York: Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad speak at the World Leaders Forum held at Columbia University, on the sidelines of the 74th session of United Nations General Assembly. Photo: Muhammad Zulhilmi Daud/BERNAMA/dpa

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte holds a sniper rifle during a Philippine National Police ceremony in Quezon City, the Philippines in April 2018. (Rouelle Umali/Xinhua/Zuma Press/TNS)

epa08087915 YEARENDER 2019 DECEMBER NSW Rural Fire Service crews fight the Gospers Mountain Fire as it impacts a structure at Bilpin, in the Blue Mountains, west of Sydney, New South Wales (NSW), Australia, 21 December 2019. According to media reports, conditions are expected to worsen across much of the state as temperatures exceed 40 degrees Celsius. EPA-EFE/DAN HIMBRECHTS AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND OUT

This Year in Asia: Huawei, Hong Kong protests, domestic workers and toxic masculinity in K-pop are our most-read stories from 2019

The ways in which the Hong Kong protests affected the rest of Asia were the year’s most widely read topic. Photo: Reuters

Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L), India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) and China's President Xi Jinping pose for a picture during a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan June 28, 2019. Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY.

Candle light vigil for Adelina and all the victims of human trafficking at Patterson Street in Causeway Bay. Late Adelina Lisao, a domestic worker in Malaysia, was reportedly tortured by her employer. 25FEB18 SCMP / Dickson Lee

=== PHOTO CAPTURED FROM FACEBOOK === Li Huanwu (R) and Heng Yirui (L) is marrying in South Africa. Photo: Facebook

Hennessy Road near Causeway Bay is a complete sea of black as Hongkongers of every age, profession and background, from every corner of the city, march in a massive show of solidarity and defiance against the extradition bill. 16JUN19

(FILES) In this file photo taken on March 14, 2019, Seungri, a member of the K-pop boy group BIGBANG, arrives for questioning over criminal allegations at the Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency in Seoul. - Female K-pop stars and actors fearing stigmatisation have rushed to issue denials that they appear in sex videos secretly shot by male singers, illustrating women's worries about victim-blaming in the face of South Korea's enduring conservative social values. In three days no fewer than five male K-pop singers, including mega star Seungri, have been identified as recipients of illicit videos made by singer-songwriter Jung Joon-young of sexual acts with women, taken without their consent. (Photo by Jung Yeon-je / AFP) / TO GO WITH SKorea-gender-social-music, FOCUS by Claire LEE

FILE PHOTO: A surveillance camera is seen in front of the Huawei logo outside its factory campus in Dongguan, Guangdong province, China, March 25, 2019. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo

Marjorie (left) and Gretchen Barretto. Photo: Instagram

FILE - In this Aug. 20, 2018 file photo, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad speaks to reporters during a news conference at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. After nearly a generation out of power, the 93-year-old is clearly relishing his return to power. (How Hwee Young/Pool Photo via AP, File)

Lee Hsien Loong, Singapore's prime minister, pauses during a Q&A panel at a dinner in honor of the Bloomberg New Economy Forum on Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2018. The New Economy Forum, organized by Bloomberg Media Group, a division of Bloomberg LP, aims to bring together leaders from public and private sectors to find solutions to the world's greatest challenges. Photographer: Giulia Marchi/Bloomberg

This Year in Asia: from Huawei to the Hong Kong protests, here are 2019’s best stories as picked by our journalists

The June 30 cover for This Week in Asia. Design: Huy Truong

Identification tags left by US marines who have gone to Mount Suribachi to remember lost soldiers. Photo: SCMP

epa06963645 South Korean Cho Hye-do (L), 86, meets with her North Korean older sister Cho Sun-do (R), 89, during the last-day of inter-Korean family reunions at Mount Kumgang resort, North Korea, 22 August 2018. In a first family reunion since three years, some 180 Koreans from separated families will meet between 20 to 26 August. EPA-EFE/O JONGCHAN / POOL SOUTH KOREA OUT

An elderly woman drags a trolley load of cardboard for recycling in front of a police water cannon vehicle, which was used minutes before to disperse protesters, in Hong Kong on November 2, 2019. - Hong Kong police fired tear gas and water cannon on November 2 as thousands of protesters hit the streets, defying authorities with another unsanctioned march as the democracy movement shows no signs of abating after nearly five months. (Photo by Anthony WALLACE / AFP)

afghan

FILE PHOTO: Demonstrators block a road access to a copper mine during a protest in Fuerabamba, Apurimac, Peru, March 29, 2019. REUTERS/Mitra Taj/File Photo

Graphic layout ***PAY PER USE. Please re-download from vendor website.*** Shutterstock ID 48647659, 300895910 grunge brush strokes paint design background Business man stress and sitting on isolated white background Korea Mental Health_Online

Four of the best known clerics behind the hijrah movement gripping Indonesian millennials. Photo: YouTube

Duterte. What's in a name, anyway?

Stir-fried asam laksa, Tracy Goh's modern take on the fish-based tamarind laksa .Photo: Handout

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Manisha Uke's daughter, Janhavi, playing in her home. Photo: Kunal Purohit

A man uses his smartphone as he stands near a billboard for Chinese technology firm Huawei at the PT Expo in Beijing, Thursday, Oct. 31, 2019. The government-organized event comes amid a trade dispute with Washington in part over China's plans for the state-led championing of its own global technology competitors. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

A woman whose name was left off the draft National Register of Citizens queues in Guwahati, Assam, to collect forms to file an appeal. Photo: AFP

Photo: Handout

Image of residential buildings and the Orchard district in Singapore. 26MAY19 SCMP / Roy Issa

***ONE TIME USE ONLY, PLEASE CLEAR THE COPYRIGHTS BEFORE RE-USE - OTUO*** Myrna Salazar collects pagpag at Joe's Junk Shop in Payatas.

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With continuing disputes in the South China Sea, a leadership transition on the cards in Malaysia and no end in sight for the Hong Kong protests, there’s plenty to watch out for this year



With continuing disputes in the South China Sea, a leadership transition on the cards in Malaysia and no end in sight for the Hong Kong protests, there’s plenty to watch out for.
