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Duterte’s South China Sea U-turn: illegal climbdown, or clever gambit for oil?

  • Philippine president says he will ignore an international court’s ruling and plough ahead with joint oil and gas exploration with Beijing in the South China Sea
  • Experts say he’s either breached the constitution, or made a very smart move

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Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing at the end of August. Photo: Xinhua
Climbdown or clever gambit? The jury is out on Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s decision to ignore a landmark ruling by an international court and plough ahead with joint oil and gas exploration with Beijing in the South China Sea.
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Duterte raised the eyebrows of many analysts – and the ire of critics – when he announced on Tuesday that Manila would ignore the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s 2016 ruling, which backed Manila’s claims to a 12 nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the sea, in order to continue with a joint oil exploration venture near the Reed Bank.

Maritime experts have previously cautioned the Philippine president against downplaying the ruling, saying that to do so would only strengthen China’s resolve in pursuing its territorial claims in the sea. The court in The Hague had refused to recognise the “nine-dash line” that Beijing uses to claim most of the sea – including the Reed Bank, an undersea feature within the Philippine’s EEZ – as its sovereign territory. Beijing has never accepted the ruling.

Many observers characterised Duterte’s latest move as a U-turn, noting that just weeks ago he had been making political capital out of his vow to raise the ruling with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his recently concluded trip to Beijing.

But on Tuesday, just days after returning from that visit, Duterte said the “exclusive economic zone is part of the arbitral ruling which we will ignore to [pursue] economic activity [with China]”. He told a press conference that Chinese officials had told him they would be “gracious enough” to grant the Philippines a 60 per cent share of any deal on joint exploration.

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