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On Reflection | Najib’s the election favourite, but is there a Malay tsunami coming?

Pollsters who predict a win for the ruling Barisan Nasional in the Malaysian election may have failed to capture the psychology of the Malays, who have lost patience with their government as a feeling of aib – shame – sets in

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Why you can trust SCMP
A homeless child in Malaysia. Malays are suffering under growing inflation and low wages. Photo: AFP

Professor Redzuan Othman, the vice-chancellor of the University of Selangor, has often insisted numbers do not lie. And that his statistical models are empirically solid.

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Moreover, based on this week’s move by Prime Minister Najib Razak’s government to change constituency boundaries, he now believes the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition will win big again. Redzuan’s predictions have been right on several occasions, and he is a serious and professional pollster. But there is also a chance Redzuan could be wrong.

Did Najib just pocket the Malaysian election? Opposition uproar as Barisan Nasional forces through boundary changes

The flaws lie not so much in the numbers and metrics but the failure to capture the psychology of the Malays, the linchpin of Malaysia, as the country inches closer to its 14th general election, which could be called as early as the end of April.

Possibly the best insight into the Malay mentality are three Malay proverbs that have been passed down from generation to generation.

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak with Myanmar’s State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. Pollsters predict Najib Razak’s Barisan Nasional coalition will win the next election. Photo: AFP
Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak with Myanmar’s State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. Pollsters predict Najib Razak’s Barisan Nasional coalition will win the next election. Photo: AFP

One is “Melayu pantang di cabar”, which roughly translates to “Malays do not like to be challenged or provoked” – a warning that has not been heeded in this heated election season.

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