Can Tokyo traverse 2018’s geopolitical tightrope between Beijing and Taipei?

The more Japan works with mainland China, the more stress it puts on its relations with Taiwan – and vice versa. This year Tokyo’s slow, even at times symbolic, efforts to build ties to Taipei may grow even slower still

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President Xi Jinping, far right, and Toshihiro Nikai, far left, secretary general of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, hold talks at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing after the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation was concluded. Photo: Kyodo

Published: 11:32am, 6 Jan 2018Updated: 11:32am, 6 Jan 2018

ON THE 7THFLOOR of the North Wing of Japan’s Foreign Ministry office in Tokyo, two China and Mongolia divisions focus primarily on cooperative efforts with Taiwan – not China – ever since Beijing-Tokyo relations soured in 2012 over a dispute about an island chain in the East China Sea.

However, as Japan-China relations start to thaw, this extraordinary situation may soon come to an end.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, left, and President Xi Jinping. Photo: Kyodo

This year, Japan and China are going to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the Japan-China peace treaty, and visits are being planned between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Xi Jinping.

Already, there were multiple signs of the rapprochement in the past month: Tokyo and Beijing agreed to set up a hotline to avoid clashes in disputed areas of the East China Sea; Abe expressed a readiness to cooperate with China’s “Belt and Road Initiative”; and China will now allow Japanese companies to issue panda bonds (renminbi-denominated bonds from non-Chinese issues), seen as a resumption of the once-promised bilateral financial cooperation.

Such diplomatic progress, however, could overshadow the momentum of Japan-Taiwan relations, which seemed especially promising after Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, from the Japan-friendly Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was elected last January. Abe is arguably the most pro-Taiwan Japanese political leader in decades, and was one of few foreign leaders she successfully built a personal relationship with.